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Watkins Leaving UCSB Economic Forecast Project
The UCSB Economic Forecast Project lost its top leadership Tuesday when executive director Bill Watkins and economics director Dan Hamilton announced they would be joining California Lutheran University’s School of Business. The pair will be helping CLU develop a proposed new graduate program in economic analysis and forecasting, as well as expanding the school’s regional forecast project.
Watkins, Hamilton and UCSB real-estate economist Kirk Lesh will be moving to CLU in the spring. Lesh already has been a senior lecturer at the Thousand Oaks campus and will become a full-time faculty member at the 3,500-student private school.
Watkins and Hamilton, who each have doctorates in economics, have been in their positions with the UCSB program since 2000. Watkins previously served as an economist with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington. He is a longtime Ventura County resident, and references to his vacation home in Lone Pine are staples of his presentations.
The UCSB Economic Forecast Project was established in 1981 to provide information on economic, demographic and regional business trends in Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo and Ventura counties. Its primary research activity is the collection and verification of statistical data and other evidence about the changing business and economic environment in the region.
The organization currently is preparing for the Santa Barbara County Economic Outlook Seminar on April 23 at The Granada, which Watkins and his team will lead.
Craig Zimmerman, chairman of the forecast project’s Santa Barbara County board of directors, told Noozhawk the April 23 presentation promises to be pivotal for the business community.
“We know businesses are being impacted by the national economy,” said Zimmerman, president of The Towbes Group Inc. “But now is the time when the UCSB Economic Forecast can really add some value to show where the real dangers lie.
“My early view is that it’s going to be a pretty grim forecast, because right now it’s hard to see where there’s light, as they say. I’m not sure we’ve hit bottom, and more than ever before, Santa Barbara is feeling what is going on at the state level and even the national level. That’s not typical for us.
“So in addition to Bill and his crew, we have (Sacramento Bee political columnist) Dan Walters to talk about the state budget. We’ll also be taking a closer look at what’s going on at the federal level, with government bailouts and the stimulus packages. That’s a perspective that you might not hear everywhere.”
Zimmerman praised Watkins for his vision and skills at expanding the UCSB program to include state and national forecasts, but he noted the transition is an opportunity to re-evaluate its mission as UCSB and the board embark on a search process for his successor.
“Bill’s done a fantastic job and clearly he will be missed,” Zimmerman said. “But the forecast project has been around for many, many years, and the university and the board are both committed to keeping it as a vital economic component of our community. We want to ensure that we continue to provide our local businesses with the information they need to grow.”
Zimmerman declined an opportunity to compare the overall economic environments of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.
“Bill gave no indication that the state of Santa Barbara County’s economy had anything to do with it,” he said, “but you have to wonder if what’s going on at the local level had some effect — our budget situation, the lengthy commute; these are not trivial considerations.
“But this is a fantastic opportunity for Bill to build a master’s program, and it’s in his neighborhood.”
Write to wmacfadyen@noozhawk.com
Comments
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» on 02.25.09 @ 04:28 PM
This will be a huge loss for the regional business community. Bill Watkins picked up
the pieces of the Economic Forecast after a community-confidence partial meltdown
with his predecessor. He expanded the range and reach of the Forecast greatly, and
did so with a lot of humor and wry wit, sometimes during difficult times. He’ll really
be missed.
Watkins had been commuting up from Ventura County for his entire length of UCSB service, so you can see how it might be a good move for him (and his team).
In the past, not many people at UCSB’s Economics Department were that interested in picking up the Forecast Project ball, so we’re grateful to folks like Mark Schniepp
and Bill Watkins for doing it so well.
The question now is that - with SAC and the UC system slashing UCSB budget areas - how and with what the UCSB Economics Forecast tries to fill the void Watkins’
leaving (with his key team) will create?
» on 02.25.09 @ 09:08 PM
Watkins is an idiot.
Two years ago he said real estate prices were going up. But that year they fell 20%
I say good riddance and “don’t let the door hit you on the way out”
» on 02.27.09 @ 11:04 AM
Yes, Watkins is not very skilled ., when it comes to forecasting the local real estate market.
All he has the ability to do is to report on what has already taken place.
Boy, he sure missed this latest downturn. When the real estate market was turing down he kept reporting that it was going to continue moving up. He had a 50%-50% chance of guessing and even then he guessed wrong!
it took him two full years after the local market peaked to be able to se that the run up was over and prices were going down.
The reason for this is he based his information on a few phone calls to realtors, and he wasn’t smart enough to know that Realtors always paint a picture far more rosy than reality. while the run up had stopped and prices were going down the Realtors told him that prices were going to continue to go up and the fool that he is he believed them.
Another reason he didn’t have a clue is that he bases his forecast on the median price.
While the price of any particular house had peaked and the price of any particular hose was dropping , the area median price was holding flat around $1,200,000.
Watkins is not smart enough to realize that the median real estate price has nothing to do with whether the market for any particular house is going up or down!
So while the market (price) of a particular house peaked at $1,200,000 and was going down first one year to $1,050,000 and then the second year to $900,000 Watkins made a faulty forecast that the local real estate market was holding up because the median price was holding up. When nothing could be further from the truth. By the time Watkins knew what was going on prices for any particular house, and thus the whole market, had already fallen substantially by 25% in price. so he was the last to know!
Yeah, what a skilled forecaster Watkins is…............ NOT!
» on 02.27.09 @ 01:14 PM
It has been my observation that Watkin’s so called economic forecasts are nothing more than taking what is currently occurring, and extending more of the same thing into the future.
I also couldn’t help noticing that his “so called forecasts” always present a far more rosier picture than reality. It’s as if he is telling people what they want to hear.
What he does is a disservice to the community!
» on 02.27.09 @ 06:30 PM
It will be very easy to replace him.
As his “forecasts” couldn’t have been more far off.
» on 02.27.09 @ 10:32 PM
It won’t be long before Cal Lutheran wants its money back. In fact, I’ll predict it will be the second year when they realize the Power Point presentation is exactly the same, except for the date slide.
» on 02.28.09 @ 12:34 PM
To whoever said ” He’ll really be missed”
I say ” Speak for yourself!”
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