Michael Barone: South Carolina Hoping to Pick Next President

All arrows appear to point to Republican front-runner Mitt Romney

By Michael Barone | @MichaelBarone | Published on 01.18.2012

  • E-mail
  • Print this page Print
  • Comments (17)
    • Share

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. — The crowd at the Fox News/Wall Street Journal debate in Myrtle Beach was feisty, with whoops and cheers for Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry, though not so much for Ron Paul.

But it wasn’t nearly as feisty as the crowd that forced the shutdown of the 1860 Democratic National Convention in Charleston before it could choose a nominee, after which the party split into two conventions elsewhere and nominated Northern and Southern candidates.

South Carolina bet wrong when it seceded from the Union in 1860 and fired on Fort Sumter in 1861 — the hall where the 1860 convention was held was burned down by Union troops in 1865 — and ever since South Carolina has not wanted to bet wrong again.

In that spirit, Strom Thurmond, who waged a third-party candidacy against Harry Truman in 1948, two decades later backed Richard Nixon against Ronald Reagan at the 1968 Republican National Convention. Nixon and other Republicans won five of the next six presidential elections.

Two decades after that convention, Thurmond aide Lee Atwater got South Carolina to establish an early Republican presidential primary, and it has been crucial in selecting the Republican nominee ever since. Many South Carolinians hope they will do that again in the primary Saturday.

“South Carolina picks presidents,” Republican state Chairman Chad Connelly said in a video aired amid the Fox News/WSJ/SCGOP debate Monday night. “The winner Saturday night,” said Faith and Freedom Coalition head Ralph Reed at its jammed tent meeting the afternoon before the debate, “will be standing on the West Front of the Capitol taking the oath of office.”

All of which tends to favor Romney. He got louder cheers than Santorum or Paul, and Gingrich got boos when he attacked Romney at the Faith and Freedom tent and at the debate. Romney has been leading in South Carolina polls this month, with Gingrich gaining only slightly and Santorum surging after Iowa and then falling back a bit after New Hampshire.

Both Santorum and Gingrich depict themselves as bold conservative alternatives to Romney. Santorum says he’s stronger because he beat Gingrich in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Gingrich says he is because he’s polling better in South Carolina, where most voters remember his stint as speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and where Santorum has not done the intensive campaigning that impressed Iowans.

But neither has found a wedge issue that undermines the front-runner. In Monday’s debate, Gingrich edged away from his attacks on Romney’s business record. Santorum took the alpha male role over Romney in one heated interchange, but in support of a proposal — voting rights for released felons — not popular with South Carolina Republicans.

Romney has been the target of negative ads run on behalf of Gingrich, Santorum and Perry, and the pro-Romney super PAC has been running negative ads, as well. Santorum has been hit as a “big government conservative” in ads run Paul, who repeated his charge in the debate.

The debate moderators spoke of negative ads in disapproving tones, but South Carolina voters don’t seem to mind. As South Carolina-born Andrew Jackson taught, if you believe in a cause, you should be willing to fight for it.

This can be carried too far. Perry, making a defensible point in the debate about federal intrusion on state issues, said South Carolina was “at war” with the federal government, which was once true but hasn’t been since 1865.

Santorum more interestingly pointed to a Brookings Institution study that showed that almost everyone who graduates from high school, gets a job and marries before having children stays out of poverty — but that the Obama administration prohibits programs for at-risk girls from teaching abstinence or promoting marriage.

But this, like Gingrich’s spirited and convincing defense of his proposal for janitorial work for high-schoolers, did little to distinguish his policies from Romney’s. The fact is that all three of these candidates, and Perry and Paul as well, have blemishes on their records from the perspective of Tea Party conservatives.

Except for Paul, they also have this in common: In opposing the Obama administration, they explicitly invoke the words and principles of the Founding Fathers. The debate riff that got a standing ovation was when Gingrich talked of “the pursuit of happiness.”

That history evidently still resonates. In the Revolutionary War, unlike the 1860s, South Carolinians bet on the winner. They seem likely to do so again next Saturday.

— Michael Barone is a senior political analyst for The Washington Examiner, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Fox News Channel contributor and a co-author of The Almanac of American Politics. Click here to contact him. Follow him on Twitter: @MichaelBarone.

Comments

Noozhawk's comments are moderated, but by posting here you accept your responsibility to follow our rules as part of Noozhawk's shared online community. Please keep your comments civil and helpful. Don't attack other readers personally, and do not use vulgar, abusive or discriminatory language. Use the "Report Abuse" link if a comment violates these standards or our Terms of Use.

You must be a registered user to comment. Create a user account

Log in




Auto-login on future visits

Forgot your password?

» AN50 on 01.19.12 @ 06:14 PM

Romney is Obama light. Get that through your head. Both have never produced any net value to the economy. Both live by wealth transfer and accumulation rather than wealth production. Both are social liberals. Neither one has that “fight” in their belly.

Ok, the Newt and Rick aren’t much better, Paul is a nut and Perry is washed up. I get it. You dopy GOP establishment country club types are weak kneed cowards and dread either leading a nation or losing an election. So if I had to pick I would stick with the angry man who at least gets his facts straight and never stutters during a debate.

Yes that’s Newt. The guy has baggage a mile long but still keeps it straight. I have never seen anyone make him wince. Santorum comes close and unlike Newt at least knows where our bread and butter comes from and it ain’t some dopy Wall Street pirates. So I would take either one.

I don’t dislike Romney. He is a man of integrity. But damn it we need a difference from Obama and Mitt ain’t that guy. And don’t think for a moment the independents you think are so far to the left you need an Obama clone to win won’t abandon Romney in a heartbeat. They like the rest of us want a change and desparately.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» Rambler on 01.19.12 @ 09:26 PM

Ahhh. The Market is UP. Employment is UP. We are in RECOVERY.

The BAD OLD DAYS of the GOP are slowly going away.

And for entertainment? The GOP Primaries. Thank you. Go, Newt!

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» AN50 on 01.20.12 @ 09:47 AM

Yes witless clown, the economy still grinds it out in spite of you idiots on the left. Is that a surprise to you? I didn’t see industry or commerce go away in Europe under an oppressive nanny state. But then they have some of the most egregious trade protectionism and our military to float their boat. I suppose its ok for us to do the same as long as China is our sugar daddy, huh? Get a clue, before your dopy Alinsky puppet sells your soul off to pay the mortgage, now at $16 trillion.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» AHamilton on 01.20.12 @ 10:14 AM

Barone and AN50 both pick up on a striking point:  I’ve been around a while (e. g. I liked Ike) but I can’t remember a primary season in either party that has been as wackily entertaining as this year’s.  Oh to be a comedian now, with over-ripe fruits just falling off the trees (e.g. Rick Santorum).

Gazing at Barone’s wise visage, here’s another question:  has anyone else noticed that, sixty years after the invention of contact lenses and decades after the invention of lasik, male pundits still think that glasses makes them look intelligent?  Women mostly don’t seem to buy into this affectation; why is that?

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» GeeWillikersWally on 01.20.12 @ 06:34 PM

I’m with AN50. I really , really hope the GOP runs Gingrich or Santorum.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» lou segal on 01.21.12 @ 04:27 AM

AN50, I just want someone who can send Obama packing. If Newt could do it, fine, but he will probably self-destruct because he is undisciplined and a loose cannon. Ask any of the Republicans who know him best. You may not like Romney but he has the best chance of winning, and practically anyone is better than the ideologue we got now.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» GeeWillikersWally on 01.21.12 @ 09:05 PM

Lou sums up the average GOP voter mentality pretty well . Newt is undisciplined and a loose cannon , but thats o.k. if only he could beat Obama. You fools gave us an undisciplined loose cannon last time and we are just now beginning to recover. What a ship of fools.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» lou segal on 01.21.12 @ 10:06 PM

GWW, I believe you misinterpreted me. I think Newt would be light years better than Obama (in fact, could be be the best candidate in the Republican field); however, the liberal media will attempt to goad Newt into saying something which may torpedo his chances of winning a general election. There are many center-right (even left) independent voters who may not vote for Newt as indicated by the national polls.

I thought Newt did a great job in his victory speech tonight excoriating Obama and drawing a contrast between the failed European-social-welfare model favored by Obama and the free market, American exceptionalism that has been our heritage and the reason why America has been the greatest economic engine the world has ever known. Trust me, it hasn’t been because of the socialistic, big govt., nanny-state policies forced on us by the fool in the White House.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» GeeWillikersWally on 01.22.12 @ 06:05 AM

Nope Lou , nothing to misinterpet. It’s right there in your own words- ” he will probabbly self destruct because he is undisciplined nad a loose cannon”.Your words , not mine.
  How convenient for you, on the ship of fools, to forget his loss of the Speaker of the House position for ethics violations.  “Oh… that was a long time ago” , or his philandering and wife cheating -  ” oh…. thaat was a long time ago”.
Truly ,as many in the party concede,the GOP has become a ship of fools.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» lou segal on 01.22.12 @ 09:36 AM

When the US economy captained by “Titanic” Obama shipwrecks on the rocks of the imploded Greek economy, Americans will vividly see who is steering the ship of fools. You better hope come next Nov for the future of your children and grandchildren, the current occupant of the White House is taking an extended vacation in Martha’s Vineyard on the golf course. Whoever can accomplish this task (I think it will be Romney) will have my support.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» GeeWillikersWally on 01.22.12 @ 02:12 PM

And how ironic and hypocritical will it be for all you fools to be voting for the originator of “Obamacare”.
“Oh ... but that was so long ago….”  Nope again. Romney’s Massachussets universal health care plan enacted 2006.
  Truly a ship full of hypocritical fools.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» lou segal on 01.22.12 @ 03:15 PM

GWW, he has said he would repeal Obamacare, so I will take him for his word. Is he the best candidate we have: no, but you take what you have, particularly when the alternative is singlehandedly driving this country off the cliff.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» AN50 on 01.23.12 @ 11:36 AM

Just to be clear, I would vote for my left shoe over Obama and my left shoe would probably win and do a better job. Look guys. This is not about who is a loose cannon, a Wall Street fat cat or anything other than who can pull us out of a mess that really began 4 decades ago under the Johnson administration. We can continue to be partisan and only look back an election or two, but that is what we always do and why we are failing right now. I picked Newt because the guy has been around long enough to know better. Romney is a smart guy as well even if I don’t like how he made his money. Even Rick Santorum gets it when it comes to wealth generation. And as nutty as Paul is, at least the old doctor doesn’t fall for the SOW crap that floats DC these days.

Willie, as Americans we need to treat the presidency less as a football game and more as a responsibility. Obama was not ready for this role. We tried to point that out and were smothered by the partisan crap instead. Now we have his first term as evidence of his lack of experience. Take any of the 4 guys left running in the GOP and they could do a better job, simply from an experience perspective. I may not care much for Romney but he does have executive experience. Newt may be a Washington insider and have no business acumen, but he has run things and knows who to ask, same for the other two gents. That experience may not matter to the partisans but it makes a real difference when it comes to the job. Say what you want about GW’s lack of acumen in any field but the man did govern at the executive level and run a business. That showed up in how he handled crisis. BO had none of this and his cabinet was damned weak as well, so partisanship aside it was his lack of resume that dogged the president more than anything else.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» GeeWillikersWally on 01.23.12 @ 07:23 PM

I find it extremely slimy for you Newtsies to so willingly overlook his past misdeeds. Ethics violations($300,000 fine), habitual marital infidelity ,  taking millions of Freddie Mac money while publicly railing against such programs, sitting in on Clintons sex scandal hearings while himself being involved in a sex scandal, etc , etc.,etc.
Slimy stuff you Newtsies are promoting here. Thanks to your Supremes , there will be a lot more money thrown around in 2012 , and a lot of it will be spent on exposing his lurid past.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» lou segal on 01.24.12 @ 03:56 AM

GWW,

If Mother Teresa was a Republican and running against your patron saint, Obama the magnificent, you would accuse her of stealing food from the poor. Give it up.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» AN50 on 01.24.12 @ 12:52 PM

There you go again, the pot calling the kettle black. You could have a more engaging conversation but choose the one topic, personal behavior, where no one can claim perfection. Good Grief.

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

» GeeWillikersWally on 01.24.12 @ 06:37 PM

By all means , please vote for Newt if it comes to that. Go ahead and prove that character is not a prerequisite to gaining your votes. History does repeat itself .

You don't have permission to flag this entry.

More Local News »

Michael Barone: Obama’s Chicago Politics — Thuggery Not Civility

President talks a good game on transparency, but then flouts the law by avoiding AVS and breaks campaign promises

Michael Barone: Shrinking Problem — Illegal Immigration from Mexico

Statistics show that the collapse of housing prices and the onset of recession have led to a standstill

Michael Barone: To Win ‘Burbs, Romney May Pick ‘Double-Vanilla’ VP Nominee

An all-white-male ticket might enable Republicans to regain much-needed ground

Michael Barone: Romney Trails Obama, But Key Numbers Break His Way

Republicans appear more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats this time around, with Romney honing in on an appealing message

Michael Barone: Colleges Skimp on Science, Spend Big on Diversity

Systemic and administrative failures leave students paying more and getting less

Weather: Fair 53.0º


© Malamute Ventures LLC 2007-2012 | ISSN No. 1947-6086

Web Design & Development by PixelFive