Santa Barbara County is in line for a major soaking on Friday — and the possibility of widespread flooding — as one of the most powerful winter storms in recent years takes aim at the region.
Areas along the county’s South Coast, from Gaviota to Carpinteria, are expected to receive 4-5 inches of rain, while some mountain locations could get up to 9 inches, according to Tom Fisher, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.
“It’s a perfectly oriented storm,” Fisher told Noozhawk.
A slow-moving low-pressure system approaching from the west is intensifying as it heads toward an “atmospheric river” of moisture, Fisher said.
That combination, coupled with strong winds directly from the south, is likely to produce higher precipitation amounts due to orographic effects of the moist air being pushed up the coastal mountains, Fisher said.
That’s good news when it comes to drought relief.
“It’s definitely the biggest storm since we started our drought,” said Tom Fayram, the county’s Water Resources deputy director. “This is the kind of storm that can be a game-changer in terms of our water supply in Lake Cachuma.”
County computer modeling shows that if the storm drops 4 inches of rain, it will raise the level of Lake Cachuma about 10 feet, Fayram said.
At the higher end of the forecast range — 8-9 inches — the lake could come up more than 20 feet, which would double the current volume and bring the reservoir to about 35 percent of capacity.
As of Wednesday evening, Cachuma stood 79 feet below spill level and at 17.8 percent of capacity.
Fayram was quick to point out that while the storm likely will provide some drought relief, it will not solve the region’s water-supply problems.
“There are two issues,” Fayram said. “Whether or not we have a good rain year and fill our lake, and has our water supply situation changed?”
Siltation has reduced Cachuma’s capacity, he said, and the State Water Project has had reliability issues.
“Our water supply hasn’t really changed,” he added.
A Flash Flood Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service, and will be in effect from 7 a.m Friday until 11 a.m. Saturday.
Rain is expected to begin falling in Santa Barbara County Thursday afternoon and evening, but should be relatively light to start, Fisher said.
By Friday morning, heavier downpours are likely, with possible rainfall rates of an inch per hour — enough to cause localized flooding.
“The low-pressure system is moving at a moderate pace, which means it will be a more prolonged period of time of heavy rainfall,” Fisher said. “And it’s a bulls-eye over Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles counties.”
The Flash Flood Watch is in effect not only for recent burn areas, but for the entire South Coast, as well as parts Ventura and Los Angeles counties.
Winds of 25-30 mph are expected, with gusts to 40 mph. Heavy surf also is forecast, with breakers to 10 feet and higher, Fisher said.
Rainfall should taper off on Saturday, with sunny skies forecast for Sunday before another, much-weaker storm system moves through the region.
Daytime highs should be around 60 degrees, with overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Santa Barbara County are encouraging residents and visitors to register at the “Aware and Prepare” emergency notification system website at www.awareandprepare.org to receive alerts.
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— Noozhawk executive editor Tom Bolton can be reached at tbolton@noozhawk.com. Follow Noozhawk on Twitter: @noozhawk, @NoozhawkNews and @NoozhawkBiz. Connect with Noozhawk on Facebook.
