Saturday, June 23 , 2018, 9:45 am | Fog/Mist 63º



Radius Real Estate & Economic Forecast Points to Recovery — Slowly but Surely

Despite lingering pessimism among Americans, agents and experts predict a positive future will bring more jobs and housing

Grumbling about the poor state of the economy may be at an all-time high, but indicators of pending recession relief are actually largely positive, according to the views of one economist Thursday.

Explaining the disconnect between the economic reality and the pessimistic attitude of many Americans was a major focal point of the sixth annual Radius Real Estate & Economic Forecast, hosted Thursday morning at Fess Parker's DoubleTree Resort.

The federal government shutdown and sequestration aside, national, state and local economies and real estate markets have been relatively unaffected and appear to be on the mend heading into 2014.

Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast, told an audience of more than 100 vested parties that still too-high unemployment rates and meager household incomes were key factors cultivating the negative outlook.

“If we were really affected by the government shutdown, you would certainly see it in the financial market,” Schniepp said. “None of these issues have really had an effect on the economy. Consumers are buying a lot of stuff. We’re moving very slowly.”

Schniepp’s observations seemed to mirror many of those presented prior to his speech by real estate agents and experts at Radius Commercial Real Estate & Investments.

Businesses are spending more money on equipment and software than labor, which helps explain why so much large, commercial office space remains vacant in Goleta, he said.

Leasing on the South Coast in 2013 has been slightly up from last year, with office and retail vacancy rates up and industrial vacancy rates decreasing somewhat.

Radius forecast
Dan Walters, a political columnist for the Sacramento Bee, delivers the keynote address. (Gina Potthoff / Noozhawk photo)

Out-of-market investors also have been more aggressively spending to buy up properties in the South Coast sales market, according to Radius principal Brad Frohling, who seemed hopeful for another big fourth-quarter showing.

“This year is the year of the investor,” Frohling said, noting that two-thirds of sales have been to investors

So many buyers but so little inventory proved to be the prevailing theme of local residential real estate in the Tri-County area, said Steve Golis, a Radius principal.

Golis said home ownership did appear to be declining with the rise of a more tech-savvy and more nomadic lifestyle.

The technology sector is where job seekers will find the most opportunity, Schniepp said, most likely in occupations that require innovation, problem-solving and analysis.

The number of jobs created in Santa Barbara County has been in line with the overall increase in population, and close to 3,000 jobs should be added in 2014, Schniepp said.

He told attendees the housing market would lead to growth in 2014, with new housing and a healthy stock market also recovering.

Noozhawk staff writer Gina Potthoff can be reached at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). Follow Noozhawk on Twitter: @noozhawk, @NoozhawkNews and @NoozhawkBiz. Connect with Noozhawk on Facebook.

Support Noozhawk Today

You are an important ally in our mission to deliver clear, objective, high-quality professional news reporting for Santa Barbara, Goleta and the rest of Santa Barbara County. Join the Hawks Club today to help keep Noozhawk soaring.

We offer four membership levels: $5 a month, $10 a month, $25 a month or $1 a week. Payments can be made through PayPal below, or click here for information on recurring credit-card payments.

Thank you for your vital support.

Become a Noozhawk Supporter

First name
Last name
Enter your email
Select your membership level

Payment Information

You are purchasing:

Payment Method

Pay by Credit Card:

Mastercard, Visa, American Express, Discover

Pay with Apple Pay or Google Pay:

Noozhawk partners with Stripe to provide secure invoicing and payments processing.

  • Ask
  • Vote
  • Investigate
  • Answer

Noozhawk Asks: What’s Your Question?

Welcome to Noozhawk Asks, a new feature in which you ask the questions, you help decide what Noozhawk investigates, and you work with us to find the answers.

Here’s how it works: You share your questions with us in the nearby box. In some cases, we may work with you to find the answers. In others, we may ask you to vote on your top choices to help us narrow the scope. And we’ll be regularly asking you for your feedback on a specific issue or topic.

We also expect to work together with the reader who asked the winning questions to find the answer together. Noozhawk’s objective is to come at questions from a place of curiosity and openness, and we believe a transparent collaboration is the key to achieve it.

The results of our investigation will be published here in this Noozhawk Asks section. Once or twice a month, we plan to do a review of what was asked and answered.

Thanks for asking!

Click Here to Get Started >

Reader Comments

Noozhawk is no longer accepting reader comments on our articles. Click here for the announcement. Readers are instead invited to submit letters to the editor by emailing them to [email protected]. Please provide your full name and community, as well as contact information for verification purposes only.

Daily Noozhawk

Subscribe to Noozhawk's A.M. Report, our free e-Bulletin sent out every day at 4:15 a.m. with Noozhawk's top stories, hand-picked by the editors.

Sign Up Now >

Meet Your Realtor Sponsored by Village Properties

Photo of Elizabeth Wagner
Elizabeth Wagner
"I consider myself to be an up front and honest agent and willing to talk my clients out of purchasing a property that isn’t right for them or won’t meet their needs in a year or two."

Full Profile >