Some Vandenberg Air Force Base members have been keeping a close eye on out-of-control debris from a Chinese rocket as they calculate — as close as possible — when and where the space junk might land.
“U.S. Space Command is aware of and tracking the location of the Chinese Long March 5B in space, but its exact entry point into the Earth’s atmosphere cannot be pinpointed until within hours of its re-entry, which is expected around May 8,” officials said.
The rocket reportedly launched April 28 with a used segment of the booster in orbit while heading for an uncontrolled re-entry. For other rocket launches, the used components fall downrange as planned and do not reach orbit.
Since Tuesday, the 18th Space Control Squadron has provided daily updates on the rocket body’s location on the website Space-track.org. More frequent estimates will be released closer to re-entry.
As of late Thursday, forecasts called for projected re-entry at 4:13 p.m. Saturday, or 11:13 p.m. — plus or minus 540 minutes.
“NOTE: This is a huge, 18-hour window, and the time/location of re-entry will continue to vary wildly,” according to the Space-Track.org social media pages, which say they are not Department of Defense accounts.
The social media posts also noted the “REALLY small” chance the space junk would land near a reader, adding, “Please keep calm and carry on.”
Typically with less media attention, the 18th Space Control Squadron at Vandenberg provides 24/7 support to the Space Surveillance Network and tracks thousands of man-made objects in space, the majority of which are in low-Earth orbit.
The military monitors man-made objects 10 centimeters, or 4 inches, and bigger — or anything approximately the size of a softball.
“All debris can be potential threats to spaceflight safety and the space domain, and the 18th SPCS delivers frontline space defense and warnings to the global space community,” U.S. Space Command officials said.
The unit routinely releases re-entry analysis as a spaceflight safety service and to adhere to international agreements.
“While most objects burn up and disintegrate as they decay, some survive re-entry of the atmosphere and have the potential to cause damage to people or property, as well as trigger false missile warnings,” a U.S.Space Force fact sheet said.
The "giant piece of space junk measures 98 feet long and 16.5 feet wide and weighs 21 metric tons, or 49,300 pounds, but most of the debris likely will not survive to reach the ground," according to Marlon Sorge of The Aerospace Corp.'s Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies
With the planet being 75% water, the debris is more likely to fall into the ocean, Sorge said.
"The probability that a piece of space debris will land on a city or a densely populated area is usually relatively small," Sorge added.
U.S. defense leaders have long touted the importance of space situational awareness — knowing the location of objects in space to protect satellites that play an increasingly valuable role for military missions and day-to-day life for civilians.
Army Gen. James Dickinson from U.S. Space Command recently testified to the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces during a hearing last month noting China’s activity.
“They invest heavily in space with more than 400 satellites on orbit today, and based on their current launch rate, could have as many as 1,000 on orbit by the end of the decade,” Dickinson said.
U.S. Space Command also continues to monitor “the exponential growth” in the commercial space market.
“We currently track a challenging 32,000 objects in space. Nearly 7,000 of those objects are active or retired satellite payloads,” he said.
Among the roughly 3,500 active satellites, he added, the three largest single constellations belong to commercial companies — SpaceX's broadband Internet constellation called Starlink, Planet Labs' Earth imaging constellation, and Spire Global's space to cloud data analytics constellation.
— Noozhawk North County editor Janene Scully can be reached at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). Follow Noozhawk on Twitter: @noozhawk, @NoozhawkNews and @NoozhawkBiz. Connect with Noozhawk on Facebook.
