TOWSON, MD. — Those of us who live in Washington, D.C., don’t make movies or airplanes. We don’t raise corn or cattle. What Washington occasionally makes is public policy, and we constantly produce “conventional wisdom.”
Here, just six months into the presidency of Barack Obama, in a two-hour focus group made up of 12 independent voters conducted by respected Democratic pollster Peter Hart for the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania, the prevailing conventional wisdom of the “everybody-in-the-know — Inside the Beltway” variety sustained a brutal beating.
You may have heard the informed insiders’ consensus, which announced that because of his daily, almost hourly, timetable of speeches, statements, events and media availabilities, that Obama was being badly overexposed; the overscheduling by the White House had dissipated the voters’ attention and diminished his influence with the public.
Wrong. Forget it. These independent voters welcome and appreciate seeing and listening to their young president. For Nora Seeley, 54, a dental hygienist, Obama is “more upfront. I like it. He is showing himself.” Remi Brooke, 60, a rental agent, endorses how Obama “explains to people so they can understand it.” Louis Moriconi, 63, a graphic designer, says: “I like the way he communicates,” while registered nurse Jeanne Chambers, 56, likes his “town-hall meeting style,” which shows him to be “obviously very intelligent.”
Until now, the voters’ familiarity with Obama has worked to his advantage. Hart commented afterward: “There’s a sense of intimacy,” which indicates “how unbelievably powerful his personal presence is.”
Obviously, a 12-person focus group doesn’t represent a scientific sample. And Obama’s job-approval numbers have been consistently declining during the past four months in established public polls (including the NBC News–Wall Street Journal poll for which Hart is half of the polling team). But Hart makes the point that “raw polling numbers only tell half the story. What we learned (in Towson) is that voters are still very much rooting for Barack Obama to succeed.”
But the jury is still very much out on his toughness. When asked directly what Obama’s backbone is made of, only two answered “steel” or “metal.” Other responses were less flattering. “Wet cement,” said Marsha Welder, 59, manager of a security firm. “Wood,” suggested 37-year-old Tom Stranger, an accountant, which was more positive than the reply of “plastic” by David Sawyer, 39, a forklift operator. Tim Polen, a 24-year-old student, the youngest in the group, said Obama’s vertebrae were simply “bone and tissue” because “he’s just human.”
The 12 in Towson are still waiting for the inevitable crisis that will test Obama and reveal whether his spine is steel or some more pliable substance.
When asked with which political family — the Obamas, McCains, Palins or Clintons — they would prefer to vacation, three picked the Republican choices, but only three respondents named the Obama family; half would rather hang out with the Clinton family. Moriconi said: “Bill’s a party guy.” But when told that a medical matter might prevent former President Bill Clinton’s vacationing, all six respondents said they would cancel.
Even those voters who are rooting for Obama think he is moving too fast. They believe the nation needs a timeout. They urge him to slow down. Stranger put it this way: “I hope he has learned that everything does not work at the speed of light.” Obama, Chambers said, “needs to develop a little bit of patience.”
Obama finds himself politically in rough seas. But, as we learned in Towson, he still inspires hope and support, and he is far from alone.
— Mark Shields is one of the most widely recognized political commentators in the United States. The former Washington Post editorial columnist appears regularly on CNN, on public television and on radio. Click here to contact him.