A light understory fire burns along the crest of the Santa Ynez Mountains a mile east of Gaviota Peak, at the edge of the Alisal Fire. 
A dozer crew from Kern County prepares to cut a line from Gaviota Peak to Highway 101 to hold the Alisal Fire from reaching Gaviota State Park near the tunnel. 
A view down onto the Alisal Reservoir. This spot may be near where the fire began Monday afternoon as it is clearly visible from the reservoir. Initially, it was thought the fire had started near this, but later it was determined that it started near the crest. 
Thick brush at the upper end of Arroyo Hondo Canyon that did not burn on Monday creates the potential for spotting over the crest to the north side of the mountains. 
Fire crews set up hose lays should the fire spot at the crest. Smoke plumes in the distance are near the upper end of San Onofre Canyon. 
A view from the trail across the east and west forks of Arroyo Hondo Canyon. 
As the morning temperature heats up, small hotspots like this begin to flare up near the top of the Ridge Trail. 
Fire crews monitor the ridge for potential flare-ups. 
A map shows the overall perimeter of the Alisal Fire. 
A map with a closer view shows where the Alisal Fire is believed to have started.
It appears containment might be near on the Alisal Fire, which began Monday at about 2 p.m. Much of the progress will depend on wind and weather conditions Saturday.
Rich Thompson, the incident meteorologist, told assembled firefighters at a Saturday morning briefing that he expected the warm and drier conditions to continue with temperatures as high as 88 degrees.
As of Saturday evening, the blaze had burned 17,253 acres with containment estimated at 53%, and the firefighting force numbers 1,747 personnel.
Dubbed the Alisal Fire when it was mistakenly believed to have started near the ranch reservoir, it became clear later that it actually had started near the crest of the Santa Ynez Mountains above Arroyo Hondo Canyon.
Warm Conditions to Continue
Warm and dry conditions were expected to prevail with humidity expected to be extremely low. Up canyon winds were expected to increase early Saturday afternoon with the possibility of gusts of up to 12 to 18 mph by midafternoon. That could especially impact fire behavior in the San Onofre Canyon area and the crest above it.
However, the Incident Operations Team is confident that they have sufficient resources and air support to hold the current fire perimeter along that part of the blaze.
The cooler temperatures and higher relative humidities expected on Monday and Tuesday would significantly aid firefighters.
Mop-Up Mode Soon?
It is possible that crews could be in mop-up mode reasonably soon. A flyover by the Ops Team on Friday indicated that the eastern end perimeter was totally cold, meaning that it no longer presented a danger of moving farther toward the Goleta area.
“We’re 100% confident that will hold,” I was told.
Along the crest, pockets of brush that didn’t burn earlier were still causing a bit of a concern, but the eastern part of the fire line from Refugio Pass from the Regan Ranch area to Rancho Dos Vistas structures in those areas were no longer in danger.
Farther west, however, pockets of fire continued to burn along the southern edge of the West Camino Cielo jeep road, primarily near the upper edges of Arroyo Quemada and Arroyo Canyons.
With 19 aircraft up Saturday, fire officials also were confident that they could extinguish any stopovers that occur on the fire line in that area.
The last remaining area of concern was the San Onofre Canyon area and along the flanks of Gaviota Peak, where numerous hot spots in the upper parts of the steep canyon continued to burn.
On Thursday and into Friday, dozers from Kern County began to cut lines directly over the top of Gaviota Peak and down to what is known as the Trespass Trail to Highway 101.
“We’re 99% confident the line will hold,” one of the fire officials told me.
Should that be the case, crews might be on the way to full containment of the Alisal Fire.
Who’s to Blame?
While fire officials originally believed the Alisal Fire might have started on the north side of the mountains near the ranch reservoir, aerial fire perimeter maps and personal observations indicate that the ignition point occurred near the crest of the Santa Ynez Mountains near the western end of upper Arroyo Hondo Canyon.
Fire officials responsible for investigating the cause have not commented, but the potential segment where it might have started is a mile-long section of the jeep road beginning from the point where a lateral jeep way comes in from the north side of the crest to a point farther east along it to the midpoint of the Arroyo Hondo watershed.
At this point, there is no indication of arson or that the fire was accidentally started by someone. Dozer activity along the jeep way may make it difficult to determine whether anyone had been in the vicinity, but given the remoteness of the area, public access is problematic at best.
One theory that has been floated by some is that the recent lightning storms may have started an initial fire north of the jeep way that smoldered for days before bursting into flames.
More Information
Los Padres National Forest has issued an order for an Alisal Fire Closure Area, which prohibits entering any national forest campground or trail system within the affected area.
The incident command page is here: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7862/
The county's Alisal Fire information page is here: https://readysbc.org/alisal-fire/
Check real-time air quality conditions and forecasts at https://fire.airnow.gov/ and https://www.ourair.org/todays-air-quality/.
The county's interactive evacuation map is here: https://sbcoem.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=85bd16aeb11f431787a9ce571096a869
— Ray Ford is a Noozhawk outdoors writer. The opinions expressed are his own. Contact him at ray@sboutdoors.com.