[Noozhawk’s note: Fourth in a series. Click here for the first article, click here for the second, and click here for the third.]
Let’s look at one phenomenon in Santa Barbara County. There are numerous fissions in our sea floor in the Elwood area off Goleta and where Platform Holly resides (shut down since 2015).
The above chart — created by emeritus professor Ira Leifer of the UC Santa Barbara Marine Science Institute and the Chemical Engineering Department with a Georgia Tech Ph.D. in atmospheric sciences — provides a mapping of our local seeps, fossil fuel deposits and seep tents.
The combined seeps in these fields release ~40 tons of methane per day and 19 tons of reactive volatile organic gas (ethane, propane, butane and higher hydrocarbons).
That’s about twice the hydrocarbon emissions and air pollution released by all motor vehicles in Santa Barbara County.
There were two new large seep tents installed in this area starting back in the 1990s that was measured capturing more than 1.5 million cubic feet of seeping gas daily.
Those tents, which were shut down in 2015, cumulatively had captured 7.6 billion cubic feet of gas, which actually was used for natural gas production and energy consumption.
A 2008 study by Leifer and fellow UCSB professors J.R. Boles and Bruce Luyendyk estimates that natural seepage amounts to 10,000 gallons of oil and 3.5 million cubic feet of natural gas a day (enough for 14,000 homes).
The solution to stop this natural seepage is drilling and energy recovery to relieve the pressure under these underground fissures where the seepage occurs, which would have the additional benefit of reducing our dependence on foreign oil, as reported in The Wall Street Journal.
Novim, a UCSB-based nonprofit organization that brings together the best minds in science to promote the public’s understanding of complex problems, recently hosted a forum, “Costa & Benefits of Eliminating Natural Gas,” presenting subject matter experts on all sides of this concern.
According to the California Energy Commission’s 2020 Methane Survey, the largest methane point source emitters in the state (43% of the total emissions in this study) are two landfills!
California also had 21 oil and gas refineries a decade ago, but now have just 14 as we have shut down a third.
This is a main reason why California now imports 30% of our energy needs from seven neighboring states, according to the California Energy Commission data.
The other factors are reduced nuclear power, and intermittent wind and solar generation that’s not sustainable. See below for a most enlightening chart of energy generation produced by Steven Koonin, a theoretical physicist and Novim science advisory board member, for the 2024 Novim forum:
Almost every news media source in the country reported on last September’s triple-digit temperatures and heat wave in Southern California, but they didn’t report how we responded to this phenomenon.
As you can review for yourself, if it wasn’t for the available supply of natural gas, we couldn’t have spiked up to fill the demand requirements of maintaining all the excess energy requirements spontaneously. No other source could/or can fill that need.
Let’s review a very big deal for a local existential threat from a few years back.
Having been involved with Friends of Goleta Beach Park (and the Goleta Bay Kelp Restoration Project), many of us had the opportunity to work with Santa Barbara County’s environmental community with respect to sea-level rise since 2008.
“Managed retreat” has been a consistent mantra that says we must begin retreating from Goleta Beach Park immediately because of dire sea-level rise.
The county prepared a final environmental impact report (2.0) in 2014, with the premise that sea-level rise would range 8 inches higher than the 2000 levels by 2030, 19 inches by 2050 and close to 5-6 feet by 2100.
Millions of taxpayer dollars went into this initiative but it was never truly implemented (over time some of the utilities and infrastructure have been removed or replaced).
Those who still use the park know of its neglect, which was more a reflection of the County Parks Division’s low maintenance budgets (which have been restored and major improvements are ongoing).
As for sea-level rise, the NOAA tides website has measured the Santa Barbara Bouy (from 1973 to 2023) at 1.15 millimeters a year. That’s 2.3 inches over 50 years!
Through 2023, all producing green energy sources now account for only one-seventh of the world’s power and has cost a staggering $12 trillion to date.
According to the Energy Transitions Commission, achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 would require a total investment of around $110 trillion globally, which translates to an average annual investment of $3.5 trillion.
However, McKinsey & Co., a highly reputable management consulting firm, has reported that spending on energy and land-use systems in the net-zero transition would cost an average of $9.2 trillion per year.
The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s recent COP29 commitment agreement received a $300 billion annual buy-in.
“Climate and energy policies must balance the risks and benefits of a changing climate against growing demand for reliable, affordable and clean energy,” he said.
“To strike that balance, policymakers must consider society’s values and priorities, its tolerance for risk, equities among generations and geographies, and efficacies, costs and collateral impacts.”
Scientists must continue to study human and natural influences relative to warming/cooling and our true influence on climate (still only 20% of our oceans have been mapped but they represent 70% of the globe).
To what degree, and what impacts, is still clearly unresolved for a true consensus before focusing on permanent mitigation efforts.
There are too many variables not being publicly factored into the equation for a better understanding of climate change before calling conclusions and final solutions.
The better question: Are man-made emissions really an existential threat to humanity?