The first significant storm of the season is headed for Santa Barbara County this weekend, but rainfall amounts are not expected to cause serious problems in and below the Alisal Fire burn area.
“It should be mostly beneficial,” Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told Noozhawk on Thursday.
Some parts of the North County may see drizzle or light rain on Friday, Kittell said, but the main weather system is expected Sunday night into Monday.
Rainfall totals should be in the 1- to 2-inch range, with most of the precipitation occurring during a six-hour period after midnight Sunday, Kittell said.
“A few places may have less or more,” he added.
Rainfall rates are expected to be between a quarter and a half inch per hour, which typically is not enough to cause serious flooding or debris flows.
The rainfall total for Refugio Canyon, much of which was denuded by the Alisal Fire, likely will be around an inch, Kittell said.
“Because of the fresh burn scar and vulnerable roads, we can expect some impacts,” he said. “But we’re not expecting widespread damage — mainly nuisances like mud on the roads and minor flooding.”
Forecasters also are not predicting any thunderstorms “that would add a wrinkle for potentially much more rain,” Kittell said.
There may be a few stray showers during the day on Monday, but dry and warmer weather is in the forecast for the remainder of the week.
The storm will be accompanied by some gusty winds — in the 20-30-mph range — but likely no warnings or advisories, Kittell said.
Increased surf also is predicted for some county shorelines, especially west-facing beaches in the North County, with swells of 15-20 feet possible.
No other rain is in the forecast locally for the foreseeable future, Kittell said, adding that “having a storm like this in October is a good sign.”
Daytime highs are expected in the low-70s Friday and Saturday, dropping to the mid- to low-60s on Sunday and Monday, before warming to the upper-70s later in the week.
Overnight lows should be in the low-50s.
Santa Barbara County has sand and sandbags available at at the bottom of Refugio Road near Calle Real for residents to fill and use for the upcoming storm.
Click here for the latest forecast from the National Weather Service in Oxnard.
— Noozhawk executive editor Tom Bolton can be reached at tbolton@noozhawk.com. Follow Noozhawk on Twitter: @noozhawk, @NoozhawkNews and @NoozhawkBiz. Connect with Noozhawk on Facebook.