A late-season storm is expected to bring periods of rain to Santa Barbara County from Friday into Sunday, with forecasters warning of possible thunderstorms and downpours during two waves of wet weather.
The first round of rain is expected to move in Friday afternoon and continue through Saturday morning, followed by another round Sunday morning that could linger into Monday, said Bryan Lewis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.
“There may be breaks, especially between these two main bands of rain where you will see some sunshine,” Lewis said.
Forecasters are confident in the overall timing of widespread rain reaching the region by Friday, but confidence is lower on exact rainfall totals and Sunday’s forecast because models still differ on how far south a colder second system will track, Lewis said. He said a farther south track would raise rain and thunderstorm chances, while a farther north track could reduce them.
Rainfall totals are generally expected to range from 0.5-1.5 inches across the region, with higher amounts possible in the mountains, foothills and areas that see thunderstorms.
For parts of Santa Barbara County, rainfall forecasts as of Wednesday afternoon ranged from about 0.41 inches in Cuyama to 0.93 inches in Santa Ynez, with about 0.77 inch for Santa Barbara, 0.72 inch for Santa Maria and 0.69 inch for Lompoc.
Lewis said a 15% to 30% chance of thunderstorms during the main bands of rain could bring brief heavy downpours, lightning, small hail and strong wind gusts.
Peak rain rates are expected to range from 0.25 inches per hour to 0.75 inches per hour, with a low 5% to 10% chance of reaching debris flow thresholds on recent burn scars, the National Weather Service said.
Lewis said forecasters are not expecting the system to rival earlier winter storms, such as the late December storm, but cautioned that roads can flood quickly during heavy downpours, even when overall storm totals are lower.
Daytime high temperatures for much of Santa Barbara County are expected to be in the mid to low 60s later this week and weekend.
No wind advisories have been issued as of Wednesday, but Lewis said there is potential for them as the storm event gets closer, mainly for interior mountains and valleys.
He said a relatively cool pattern is expected to continue into next week, with chances of more rain returning toward the end of that week.
A small-craft advisory is in effect for the South Coast through 11 p.m. Thursday.
Click here for the latest forecast from the National Weather Service.
