With some timidity, I take issue with Kirk Greene’s May 13 commentary, “Economic Summit Speakers Get Serious About Reviving State Street.”
Greene is a self-proclaimed “finance guy” and distills some “concrete ideas” for encouraging affordable housing here.
He suggests we recognize the economic rule of supply and demand: low supply and high demand result in high cost (which now exists in Santa Barbara).
His solution dictates building more housing to have average costs decline. I don’t believe that works in Santa Barbara.
Maybe supply-demand works with homogenized commodities in which equivalent choices are many, cost is the major selection determinant, and sales competition will lower prices. That is not the case for Santa Barbara.
It’s probably not even the case for seemingly identical homes somewhere in a tract development. Some homes will have different floor plans, different positions on the street, different color schemes, or placement on their lots. Those little differences mean certain homes will always sell at higher prices, even though they all look pretty much the same.
Santa Barbara is one of those places that will always demand higher prices. There will always be a buyer willing to pay a premium to live in that particular tract home, or in Santa Barbara.
Maybe supply-demand works best in macroeconomics in which variables are held constant, an acceptable equilibrium can be achieved in decades, and the considered universe is large.
For example, if more housing is built in the greater Santa Barbara County area and we wait long enough, there will probably be an average price decrease, but Santa Barbara city costs will still be higher than average and other cities will be lower.
Maybe supply-demand works where the impact of increased production does not alter the character of the product. Living in a city with a humble history has advantages and disadvantages.
Santa Barbara grew from a classic startup with a single commercial strip and surrounding residences. That historic main street bore the brunt of earthquake damage in 1925 and benefited from the rebirth that became our signature architectural style today.
It is protected as our El Pueblo Viejo Landmark District with strict regulation on allowable changes. If the historic character of the place is changed, its human scale and attractive nature are at risk.
But, to Greene’s point, prices may decline.
Here are my (not an economist) concrete ideas:
There will always be an insatiable demand for housing in Santa Barbara that will never be met and will never result in lower prices due to several factors. First is the current built environment that, by benevolent history, is a pleasing architectural style and human scale, unless changed by overbuilding.
Second is our situation just far enough away from an international megalopolis with a boundless desire for a lower-key, less crowded bedroom.
Third is geography that drives some demand: natural recreation within easy reach, whether wilderness climbing or beach relaxing, or just those wistful views of ocean or mountains for vicarious enjoyment.
Even if development could expand outside our protected El Pueblo Viejo district, some of the solutions for inadequate housing affordable — like urban sprawl — are not easily or economically available in Santa Barbara.
We are bound by northern mountains, ocean on the south, and incorporated municipalities on the east and west.
Simplistic supply-demand arguments work only if the product remains constant. Overbuilding in Santa Barbara, particularly our historic downtown, will invariably change the product.
The character of what makes historic Santa Barbara attractive (and lucrative) will be diminished by unregulated building.
Development in downtown Santa Barbara without smart and sensitive controls will absolutely spoil the product. The human scale charm will be irretrievably altered.
Housing prices may fall, but that will not be due to increased availability; it will be due to decreased attractiveness of the place.
Who will disagree? When the charm, unique character or livability of a place is changed by overdevelopment, then demand and prices will fall.
That is the unfortunate way local housing prices will come down: make Santa Barbara like so many other places.
Then buyers will have choices elsewhere that create downward price pressure. And theoretical economists may be smugly satisfied.



