An Aug. 8 Noozhawk commentary, “Rodney Meadth: COVID-19 Case Counts Should Not be Only Metric Driving Community Response,” reported that Santa Barbara County is experiencing a rise in COVID-19 case counts, which had not yet reflected a rise in hospitalizations and deaths.
The commentary presents a valid point that case counts should not be the only metric we use to influence public opinion on the COVID-19 pandemic.
The constant incidence of hospitalizations despite the rise in case counts is cited as evidence to minimize its importance in driving public opinion.
This analysis, however, does not account for the two-week lag between the number of cases, the number of hospitalizations and the number of deaths due to COVID-19.
The number of cases and hospitalizations in Santa Barbara have both increased significantly recently, therefore, reports of both should be updated.
Santa Barbara County
The graphic above shows the relationship between new cases and new deaths for Santa Barbara County plotted on the same graph (the new deaths were scaled to fit the new cases scale).
The illustration shows that there appears to be two-week lag between the numbers of new cases and new deaths. This effect can be seen most clearly by comparing the peaks in both curves. A similar lag may exist between the number of confirmed infections and the time-course of hospitalization.
Santa Barbara County Hospitalizations
The graphic above shows the current rise in Santa Barbara County hospitalizations following the previous low in June.
California Cases and Deaths
The graphic above shows the relationship between the time-course of new cases and new deaths in California.
The illustration shows the same two-week lag between the number of new cases and new deaths in California. The current surge in the number of new cases in Santa Barbara County and in all of California appears to be consistent over several weeks.
Currently, the level of new cases is only about half of the peak number last year. This data beg the question, however, of how high will the next peak be?
Pediatric Pandemic
Another disturbing trend in several other states is the sharp increase in the pediatric hospitalization rate for COVID-19 infections, such as in New Orleans.
These data should be very concerning to residents of Santa Barbara County, because they may be prophetic of what will happen here soon.
These observations suggest the following conclusions:
1. Santa Barbara County and all of California may experience another surge in cases, deaths and hospitalizations in the near future, particularly with pediatric patients similar to what is happening now in Louisiana.
2. Vaccination appears to greatly reduce the risk of hospitalization. This conclusion is supported by:
» The Massachusetts Institute of Technology reports that “breakthrough infections” of vaccinated people represented only 0.02% of all infections in Massachusetts.
» For the week of July 31, the average daily COVID-19 case rate among unvaccinated Californians was 33 per 100,000 and the average daily COVID-19 case rate (the “breakthrough rate”) among fully vaccinated Californians was at 7 per 100,000, the California Department of Public Health reported Aug. 11. This report means that unvaccinated people are 33/7 = 4.7 times more likely to be infected with COVID-19 than are vaccinated people.
» The proportion of total COVID-19 hospitalizations in California among fully vaccinated people is currently only about 0.8%, based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data tracked by the Kaiser Family Foundation. Therefore, 99.2% of all COVID-19 hospitalizations are among nonvaccinated individuals.
3. Evidence presented by the CDC supports its July 28 recommendation that all unvaccinated people should be vaccinated as soon as possible.
4. Given the above evidence, it appears likely that Santa Barbara County will experience another spike in COVID-19 hospitalizations very soon.
— Longtime Goleta resident Bob Nisbet Ph.D. is a data science instructor at UC Irvine and conducts research in colon cancer prediction from clinical data at UC Irvine Medical Center. The opinions expressed are his own.