[Noozhawk’s note: Noozhawk publisher Bill Macfadyen will be interviewing Brian Goebel about his coronavirus data analysis and modeling at 1 p.m. April 13, in an exclusive conversation that will be livestreamed on Noozhawk’s homepage and Facebook page.]
Having previously examined the downward bend in California’s statewide hospital admissions curve, I decided to perform a similar analysis for my community, Santa Barbara County.
The county recorded its first hospital admission much later in the coronavirus pandemic than many other parts of the state. As a result, the data cover the period of March 25 to the present.
The COVID-19 numbers in Santa Barbara County are very small when compared to the state data. In particular, the county has had only two COVID-19 fatalities, which means that this data cannot be used to assess the trajectory of the virus, except to note that that there certainly has not been a surge or spike in fatalities since the pandemic arrived locally.
We now have more than two weeks of hospitalization data for Santa Barbara County. This is the best available data for assessing the trajectory of the virus here, and it is the most relevant for policy makers given that the stated rationale for the extraordinary statewide stay-at-home order was to ensure COVID-19 hospital admissions would not exceed our health-care capacity.
What follows is the Santa Barbara County curve. Keep in mind three very important notes regarding the interpretation of this chart:
First, I based the uncontrolled spread curve on the trajectory of COVID-19 in Italy (as I have done in all my prior analyses).
Second, Santa Barbara County reports net hospitalizations at the end of each day (i.e., the number of people currently in hospitals receiving treatment for COVID-19 symptoms). We know this because the number moves up and down during the reporting period.
To the county’s credit, reporting daily net hospitalizations is the most accurate way to report such data because (1) if the curve is flat, it means that daily admissions equal daily discharges and (2) if the curve is bent downward, it means that daily admissions are less than daily discharges.
Third, roughly 25 percent of the county’s current hospitalizations are the result of infections originating in the Lompoc Federal Correctional Complex. Although these cases are affecting county health-care resources, they should not be treated as evidence of spread in our larger community in my view. Instead, this is an isolated outbreak that can be stemmed through comprehensive quarantining strategies.
What can we learn from the county hospitalization data?
First, Santa Barbara County has not experienced an uncontrolled spread of COVID-19.
Second, Santa Barbara County’s hospitalization curve has been flat during the entire pandemic (even when including Lompoc inmate and prison staff admissions).
The county’s intensive-care unit bed use has been flat as well — mirroring the .4 ICU bed-to-1 hospital bed ratio for confirmed cases statewide. As a result, we currently have substantial unused health-care capacity.
Third, Santa Barbara County has not experienced any “surge” or “spike” in hospitalizations, and for reasons I have explained previously, I do not foresee one while the stay-at-home order remains in place.
Like California as a whole, I believe the numbers demonstrate that Santa Barbara County is on track to begin slowly and sensibly making the transition to a new normal by May 1. I hope we are empowered to do so.
Be safe. Be well.
— Brian Goebel served as a senior official in the Treasury and Homeland Security departments following 9/11. Since 2005, he has founded successful consulting and analytics firms serving governments around the globe; launched 2040 Matters, a nonpartisan public policy blog dedicated to restoring the American Dream for younger Americans; and was elected to the Montecito Water District Board of Directors in 2018. Click here for previous columns. The opinions expressed are his own.