Updated data released by the Santa Barbara County Association of Governments show the county’s population is projected to grow by 17%, or 75,460 people, between 2025 and 2060.
The household growth rate is also expected to outpace population growth over the next 35 years. The number of households is expected to grow by 25%, or 37,590 households.
That difference is expected because of new housing developments that address overcrowding, as well as smaller household sizes. More single-adult older households are expected, and young families are choosing to have fewer kids, according to Mia Lewis, SBCAG transportation planner.
“We’re seeing similar trends with Santa Maria, Lompoc, as well as the Santa Maria unincorporated subregion in having the fastest growth, but you’ll notice that the household growth tends to outpace the population growth across the county,” she told the SBCAG board on Thursday.
The data reviewed and approved by the board will support the development of SBCAG’s regional transportation plan and sustainable communities strategy.
The plan helps prepare for the region’s traffic, transit and infrastructure needs.
“These numbers we put into our transportation models, our land-use models, and that way when we plan for the future, these populations, these households, these jobs inform what projects come out of that process,” said Mike Becker, SBCAG’s director of planning. “…We want to know what is expected in the future so we can identify what are the solutions that will address those demands that are coming.”
He said most of the cities in the county also use SBCAG’s forecast for their own planning efforts.
Population and household growth are projected to be higher in the North County compared to South County.
The largest incorporated population growth is expected in the cities of Lompoc and Santa Maria at 27% (11,790 people) and 29% (32,880 people), respectively.
Santa Maria’s household growth is expected to go up by 51% (15,590 households), while Lompoc’s is expected to increase by 33% (4,640 households).
The unincorporated Santa Maria Valley is also expected to see high growth.
The population in that area is expected to grow by 18% (6,610 people), while the number of households in that area is expected to grow by 39% (4,900 people).
Down in South County, the highest incorporated population growth is expected in the city of Goleta, at 16% (5,110 people).
The highest South County incorporated household growth is also expected in Goleta, at 16% (2,020 households).
The data also tackled employment growth. The county as a whole is expected to see employment growth of 21%, or 47,700 jobs, through 2060.
Job growth is expected to remain largely concentrated in the South County, but there is also significant employment growth expected in North County cities, Lewis said.
The highest North County incorporated employment growth by percentage is expected in Lompoc, at 22% or 2,350 jobs. Santa Maria was close behind at 21%, or 12,240 jobs.
The highest South County incorporated employment growth is expected in the city of Santa Barbara, at 26%, or 17,190.
The county is also expected to see more healthcare and education jobs because of the area’s aging population, Lewis said.
SBCAG board members questioned why the numbers for the Vandenberg Space Force area seemed low, compared to what they’ve heard about job growth at Vandenberg. (Jim Mosby, Lompoc’s mayor, ultimately voted no on approving the data.)
Becker said the data is based on assumptions, and that certain events or disasters, like the COVID-19 pandemic, can change the outcome.
Lewis said this forecast will be updated within the next four to eight years with new projections.
“If we see significant growth or get new information, we can input that and update our estimates,” she said.
The full report presented to the board can be seen here, starting on page 624.
