When it comes to the economy, beware of the power of the narrative, economist Christopher Thornberg told a crowd Friday morning in Santa Maria, where he urged leaders to focus on reality while crafting policies positioning the North County for growth.

Thornberg spoke at the North County Economic Forecast event organized by the Santa Maria Valley Chamber of Commerce and held at the Patty Boyd Concert Hall on the Allan Hancock College campus in Santa Maria. 

“Stop relying on outside influences to color your perceptions of what your world is,” said Thornberg, a founding partner for Beacon Economics. “When you grab the right narrative and run with it, you have all sorts of potential in front of you. Santa Maria has enormous potential. It’s something I really want you to grab on to.”

He referred to “the tale of two economies” providing differing outlooks, one of which could hamper future growth and economic development.

One narrative pinpoints Santa Maria as a lower-class, poor agricultural community almost deserving pity, Thornberg said.

Another narrative describes it as a blue-collar community with an enormous amount of potential growth in front of it.

“You’re going to see tremendous development in not only the size and scope of this local economy, but also in the quality of life for the people calling this place home,” he said.

Along with ag, other economic growth will come from the aerospace and defense sectors connected to Vandenberg Space Force Base plus health care.

Much of Santa Barbara County’s recent job growth occurred in the Santa Maria Valley, according to the data.

As more growth occurs, the North County needs to add housing, he said, noting the area has a supply problem while contending that “rent control is not the way to go.”

Thornberg also touted modular projects to create multifamily housing developments. 

“They look good. They’re great units. They’re sturdy. They’re cheap. Build a ton of those, and that’s going to cause such a lift to the local community,” he said.

Santa Maria has a five-story building on Santa Maria Way used to create senior housing, with plans for additional buildings at the location.

“More housing makes housing affordable. Less housing makes housing less affordable. Period,” Thornberg said. “It’s a supply conversation.”

He also called for creating new neighborhoods, not just infill development.

“Space is your friend when it comes to housing supply,” he said.

“This is not a sales pitch for Solomon Hills, by the way,” Santa Barbara County Fifth District Supervisor Steve Lavagnino said.

Solomon Hills would create a new community with a developer applying to build 4,000 new units plus assorted businesses, offices and public facilities south of Orcutt between Highways 101 and 135. 

During more than two hours of presentation and questions, Thornberg covered a broad number of topics.

While narratives might suggest otherwise, Thornberg contended that the nation has “a remarkably resilient economy.”

He spoke in favor of education, calling it one of the best investments, but he also opposed hiking the minimum wage.

Amid claims about a drop in wine drinkers hurting the industry, Thornberg contended it’s affecting lower-end wines. 

“They’re drinking less box o’ wine,” he said.

Even in the midst of overall wine supply going down, the number of wineries is up 13% in San Luis Obispo County and 2.7% in Santa Barbara County.

Vines getting yanked out of the ground because of the glut include Madera, Fresno and Kern counties or inland area vineyards, he said.

“It’s not quite Fresno, it’s not quite Napa, it’s something in between,” Thornberg said of North County’s wine industry. “But again, it’s something to continue to lean in on because the Central Coast has good wine. There are wonderful wineries here. It’s a matter of getting that word out.”