The City of Santa Barbara could have to plan for as many as 8,042 new housing units between 2023 and 2031 — nearly double the number of units it was allocated during the previous cycle.
The 8,042 number is just one early projection that the Santa Barbara County Association of Governments presented in documents at a recent meeting. The official number won’t be known until the state releases it in September.
“We do not have a formal indication of what our number will be for the sixth cycle,” said Mike Becker, director of planning. “We do expect it to be the largest we have seen, potentially significantly larger.”
Santa Barbara in the most recent planning cycle was allocated 4,099 housing units by the California Department of Housing and Community Development.
Communties throughout the state have struggled to build enough housing to accommodate California’s nearly 40 million population. The California Department of Housing and Community Development’s allocation is intended to pressure cities and counties to zone and plan for housing of all types — at a time when there is a statewide housing shortage. The state gives a number to the county, which is then distributed to the jurisdictions by the Santa Barbara County Association of Governments. Cities must plan for the number in their Housing Elements, which are approved by the state.
“On paper, it is technically possible, but what that means when you start to balance quality of life, resources to serve that many more people, water electricity sewage traffic, it would obviously be a challenge to chase a number that is double that we are chasing for now,” Councilman Mike Jordan said.
In September, SBCAG will present the numbers to the jurisdictions, which will set the stage for cities to push back and negotiate with the county. SBCAG will have 30 days to object if an allocation is not acceptable, and the Department of Housing and Community Development has 45 days to make a final determination.
Dan Gullett, principal planner for the city, said the city’s current build rate is about 250 units per year. He said it is unrealistic to think that the city could build or facilitate development of 1,000 units per year, but that certainly the city theoretically could find room.
“I’m confident we can provide the zoning capacity for these new units,” Gullett said.
He said that 95 percent of California jurisdictions did not meet their allocations during the last cycle and that allocations have been increasing substantially.
“We are still reviewing the allocation from the state and the methodology used by SBCAG staff to distribute each jurisdiction’s share,” Gullett said, adding that he expects equity in the process. “I expect the city’s share of the county’s allocation will be equitable. This is a countywide collaborative process, and we are already discussing how to distribute the state-mandated allocation fairly.”
SBCAG’s preliminary scenario for some areas suggests:
» Santa Barbara: 8,042
» Santa Maria: 6,765
» UCSB and unincorporated area: 3,239
» Lompoc: 2,069
Santa Barbara County First District Supervisor Das Williams said the county has never met the number that the state has suggested. He called it a bit of a “paper tiger.”
“People go, ‘Oh my God, 10,000 units,’ but if only 20 percent of that actually gets built, that’s a much smaller amount,” Williams said. “It’s not to say that I don’t think we should take it seriously because it highlights some of the areas of real need for housing, but I don’t think it should mean that we are tempted to use every advantage to accomplish an end to this process. It should remain a cooperative process and one where we understant that only a percentage of the allocation ever gets built.”
Councilwoman Meagan Harmon said city officials knew going into this assessment period that housing allocation would increase. It wasn’t a question of if but of how much, she said.
“For my neighbors and I — most of us renters — this significant increase is reflective of our lived experience: a near-zero vacancy rate, intense competition for units and soaring rents,” Harmon said.
She said the RHNA numbers are based on a complicated formula.
“I do believe the increase is correctly identifying what we in Santa Barbara already know, that there is a severe rental housing shortage in our community,” Harmon said. “That shortage is squeezing our city’s working families to a breaking point. We must continue our efforts to creatively and sustainably meet our housing numbers — however aspirational those numbers may be. Our neighbors depend on it.”
— Noozhawk staff writer Joshua Molina can be reached at jmolina@noozhawk.com. Follow Noozhawk on Twitter: @noozhawk, @NoozhawkNews and @NoozhawkBiz. Connect with Noozhawk on Facebook.
