Trends for the Class of 2026:

• The University of California schools saw a .6% increase in applications this year. This is after a .5% decrease last year, so nothing noteworthy. In-state applications dropped slightly, out-of-state applications increased, and international student applications remained flat.

• Common Application reported a 5% increase in applications, but only a 2% increase in the number of students. Meaning students are applying to more Common App schools. The average is now between six and seven schools per applicant.

• Common Application applicants reporting test scores outnumbered those who did not. Test scores were also required by more elite schools that typically use the Common App this year, so not surprising.

• Early Decision continues to gain influence at the schools that offer it (mostly private, though not exclusively). I am not a fan of early decision, but it definitely increases the odds of getting admitted. Which also means pre-application visits are more important than ever. 

Predicting the Future

• An Increase In Merit Money at Non-elite Schools

The class of 2025 was the largest graduating high school class for the foreseeable future. Birth rates dropped in 2008 and beyond due to the financial crisis, meaning colleges will have fewer students to fill the same number of seats. Elite schools (a.k.a. “seller” schools) won’t notice much difference; they can always fill their seats.

But “buyer” schools may need to offer additional money to get students. Some schools can afford this, but every school has its limit. What that is depends on how tuition-driven the school is. This may also lead to financial instability at some colleges.

• Test Scores


The SAT/ACT is making a comeback at the most competitive level. While California public schools remain test-blind, all Ivy League schools except Columbia have returned to test-mandatory policies.

There were almost 1,000 schools that were test-optional/test-free before COVID, and that won’t change. But the most selective schools are absolutely having this discussion if they have not already changed their policy.

• Waitlist Activity


I predict significant waitlist activity this year, especially at schools without Early Decision. If it starts at the top of the food chain, it will ripple through the entire system. With international student applications down, need-aware schools may also be looking at students who need little to no financial aid when they go to their waitlists.

Seniors Bonus:

Getting in is one thing, affording college is another. I do not advise taking on tremendous debt for college, even for a prestigious institution.

You can debate what “reasonable debt” is, but whatever amount you choose, run it through a loan calculator to see what you will really pay.

Research average debt at graduation (don’t assume four years) and average salary 10 years after graduation (which can really vary by major), so you are looking at return on investment, not simply out-of-pocket cost.

Financial aid offers may be negotiable, but don’t count on it. For details on this subject, see the previous article from April 2025.