Unless you have been on a deserted island, you’ve heard lots of news about the SpaceX initial public offering.

This was by far the biggest IPO in history, raising $75 billion at an initial valuation of $1.78 trillion.

The June 12 IPO was oversubscribed with about five times more demand than supply and, since opening at $135 a share, the stock price has risen dramatically.

Writing this column on the morning of June 16, SPCX price has surged to $210 — creating a market capitalization of about $2.85 trillion.

Note, that is larger than both Amazon and Microsoft, pushing SpaceX into the top five companies in the world.

And SpaceX dwarfs traditional space/defense companies — with a valuation that exceeds the combined market cap of all 12 aerospace and defense contractors on the S&P 500 — including Boeing, GE Aerospace and RTX.

The “trillion-dollar question” for investors: Is it worth it? There are compelling arguments on both sides of this debate.

Bullish Case

• Never bet against Elon Musk. The world’s first trillionaire is widely regarded as one of the most influential entrepreneurs and visionaries in history. He has made electric vehicles and reusable rockets commonplace, and continues to do the impossible (or improbable).
  
• More than just hype. Unlike many early stage companies, SpaceX is already producing huge revenues. It has about 60% of the commercial launch market and significant defense contracts. The Starlink satellite internet business operates like a high-margin utility/telecom company with reliable, recurring revenues. Its artificial intelligence investment efforts seem well behind Anthropic and OpenAI — but the company built the Colossus 1 AI supercomputer in just 122 days. Starlink continues to create a global communication system unlike any other, and Musk talks about putting data-centers in space.
  
• 2025 revenues were $18.7 billion, up from the $14 billion reported the year before, with 60% coming from Starlink connectivity. Wall Street investment banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs project revenues to reach $300 billion to almost $500 billion by 2030. Always the optimistic salesman, Musk recently suggested they may hit $1 trillion by that time.

Bearish Case

• High valuation. The June 16 $211 price implies a $2.85 trillion market cap, so the stock is extremely expensive by any traditional valuation method. That is more than 150 times 2025 sales. By comparison, Nvidia trades at 20-30 times sales during peak periods of enthusiasm. And since the company’s earnings are still negative (yes, they have lost money in 2025 with a net income of -$4.9 billion), today’s P/E ratio would imply a mind-blowing -500x. It is important to note that losses are in large part due to massive capital spending.

• Competition. Amazon’s Kuiper is competing with Starlink, and the Chinese have satellite internet initiatives with government backing. More competition could mean services become commoditized.
  
• IPO history. Large U.S. IPOs have historically underperformed more often than investors expect. A “hot IPO” does not assure good future returns, especially with stretched IPO valuations.

• Enthusiasm wanes. All the hype of a big IPO like this, combined with the excitement that comes with anything to do with space exploration, can fade away. Just think about the explosion of Blue Origin’s rocket last month.

• Key-man worries. While SpaceX has about 22,000 employees, Musk is key to the company’s success. What if something happened to him? While most argue the company would go on, the loss of this visionary would be huge. How much of the multitrillion-dollar valuation is the “Elon-effect”?

Only time will tell. As someone, who (like Musk and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos), grew up watching Star Trek, a big part of me is hopeful that SpaceX and others can conquer space and make some of these ambitions come true.

I even bought 20 shares of SPCX just for fun, and before long most everyone will own shares as the company’s stock is integrated into major indexes.

Bulls are betting that SpaceX becomes the dominant infrastructure company of the space age, combining telecom, defense, launch services, AI computing and, eventually, off-world commerce.

Bears argue that even extraordinary companies can be poor investments when expectations become too lofty.

The question is not whether SpaceX is a remarkable company. It clearly is. The question is whether its future success is already priced in.

This should be an interesting story to follow.