The arrival of a new presidential administration has historically shaped how we feel about large financial transactions and, for most, none greater than when to buy or sell our homes.
Interestingly, it seems the new administration has somehow not deterred sales in Santa Barbara.
Since the first of the year, single-family homes here have experienced notable increased inventory as well as demand.
Overall, single family inventory rose a significant 42%. Condos did even better with inventory up 48%, and Montecito and Hope Ranch 76% each.
The number of sales was also way up compared to last year. Single-family home sales increased 48%, Montecito and Hope Ranch were up 46%, and condos a remarkable 61%.
I’m not exactly sure why we are seeing such a significant sales boom. Perhaps it reflects a confidence in the future this new administration promises.
Or perhaps it reflects Democrats fleeing red states. Or, that Social Security here isn’t taxed and property tax is capped at 1%.
Or, our great public golf courses and beaches.
It could also be, in part, the devastating Los Angeles wildfires and families repositioning here. I don’t have the numbers, but our schools report many new Los Angeles kids in attendance.
More people are finding Santa Barbara a truly great place to live if you can afford it, and increasingly many more can. Whatever the reason(s), we are getting a lot of attention.
Increased inventory, of course, brings more buyers to the table and, if continued, it could well moderate many years of price increases.
For example, unlike other areas, year to date, although sales were significantly up in Montecito and Hope Ranch, they did not see an increase in prices obtained.
We may well see price leveling in all areas going forward, something buyers have long been awaiting.
This demand surge is also curious because national data find people are increasingly moving away from high-risk areas driven by rising climate awareness. I just opened my Fire Hazard Severity Zone map issued by CalFire, and like many of us, it is not so good.
CalFire is required to identify wildfire risk throughout California. The just-released maps provide a hazard score measuring fire likelihood.
There are three levels of hazard areas: Moderate, High and Very High. My designation was Very High. Click here to find your score on the CalFire website.
Chumash houses — circular, dome shaped and known as an ‘ap — were reportedly the most impressive of all tribes on the California coast. And they lived in their homes all their lives, passing them on to future generations.
Though, I admit not as extraordinary, we have, in a relatively short amount of time, nearly doubled the years of staying in our homes; 20 years ago it was 10 years, and now it’s just under 20 years on average.
A component of our recent sale increases is, of course, our neighbors selling their homes. It seems everyone I know who has moved from here did so for a quaint place somewhere in the world, or, more often, to be near family. So far, it has never been about wildfire risk.
No one is looking forward to hearing a neighbor tell you that, given the fire threat level and limited insurance available, their home, always a significant asset here, was unacceptably at risk and felt forced to move.
The California FAIR Plan, the state’s home insurance coverage of last resort, only insures up to $3 million; essential and welcomed, but for many not enough.
Notwithstanding the legitimate wildfire threat we face, this is not new to Santa Barbara. We know how to deal with fires and so far how to adjust to them.
We are also seeing great strides in technologies that fire-harden homes. New home building and renovations here will certainly be forced to consider these new materials going forward.
In the meantime, we should see an active spring and summer market, and let’s hope for a good amount of gentle rain.



