As a potent storm got closer on Monday, National Weather Service officials ramped up warnings of flash flooding and minor debris flows overnight in Santa Barbara County’s burn areas, including the Lake Fire, Madre Fire and Gifford Fire.
The county Office of Emergency Management issued evacuations warnings Monday night for areas in and below the Gifford Fire and Lake Fire burn areas. They escalated the warnings to shelter-in-place orders overnight and then canceled the warnings Tuesday morning.
The early season storm will cause brief, heavy rainfall and strong winds countywide Monday night and Tuesday morning, NWS forecasters said.
They anticipate mountain and foothill areas will receive double the amount of rainfall that coastal and valley areas do.
“The real focus will be the Santa Ynez (Mountains) range and the interior mountains,” meteorologist Dave Gomberg said.
The storm will move north to south, and the overnight period midnight to 6 a.m. appears to have the highest risk for debris flows in San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties, Gomberg said.
A flood watch will be in effect for recent burn scars from 8 p.m. Monday through 3 p.m. Tuesday.
That includes the Lake Fire in the eastern Santa Ynez Valley, which burned in summer 2024, and the Madre Fire and Gifford Fire from earlier this year in the North County east of Santa Maria.
The NWS expects a first wave of rain, then a break, and then more, which is why the flood watch stretches into Tuesday afternoon.
County officials warned that Highway 166, which runs through the Gifford Fire burn scar, could experience flooding, mudslides and rockslides.
Caltrans crews did rock scaling and other work along the roadway specifically to stabilize the hillsides and prepare for the rainy season.
The risk of at least minor debris flows is “quite high now,” Gomberg said Monday.
There was a low-to-moderate risk of significant and damaging debris flows in recent burn areas, with Los Angeles County’s Palisades Fire and Eaton Fire areas most at risk due to high rainfall rates.
Flash flooding and debris flows are a concern in areas recently burned by wildfire. Scorched soil usually has less vegetation and can become water-repellant, causing water to run off rather than soak in.
A Gifford Fire report found that most areas had low-to-moderate soil burn severity.
Santa Barbara County could see rain rates of one-third to two-thirds of an inch per hour, or isolated storm cells with up to 1 inch of rain per hour.
“A lot of that rainfall could fall in shorter durations, like half an hour or 15 minutes,” Gomberg said.
In addition to the brief, heavy downpours, the NWS expects damaging wind gusts above 60 mph, which could knock down trees and cause power outages.
There’s also a small chance of isolated waterspouts and tornados.
The NWS advised people to stay off the roads as much as possible during the heavy rain, and county officials released a list of sandbag stations and safety tips.
The California Office of Emergency Services approved prepositioning Santa Barbara County Fire Department heavy equipment, helicopter and other responders from 4 p.m. Monday through 5 p.m. Tuesday for storm response, fire Capt. Scott Safechuck said.
When county officials issued the evacuation warnings for Lake Fire and Gifford Fire burn areas, they advised residents to leave immediately if they feel unsafe and if they stay, be ready to sustain themselves for multiple days in the event of flooding and debris flows, county officials said. Roads could become impassable.
Anyone who needs assistance with emergency shelter during the storm can contact the Red Cross at 805.678.3073, the county said.
“Do not attempt to drive while it is dark or raining, as roads may be damaged or your car may be swept away by moving water or debris. Be prepared to shelter in place should the National Weather Service issue a flash flood warning or in the event flooding or debris flows occur. Residents are advised to stay inside and go to the innermost room in your home or to higher ground such as the second floor. Do not attempt to leave,” officials said.