Santa Barbara County has lost about 15% of its population of those ages 25 to 45 during the past 20 years and is expected to lose another 15% in the next 10 to 15 years.

Those numbers were shared by Peter Rupert, director of the UCSB Economic Forecast Project, during his speech at the 2025 State of the County event at the Ritz-Carlton Bacara in Santa Barbara on Thursday.

During the event, officials stated that despite the county’s balanced budget, its operating costs have outpaced its revenue — and tariffs and other economic concerns could make it worse.   

The event, hosted by the Santa Barbara South Coast Chamber of Commerce, is an annual meeting where members of the business community and elected officials gather to discuss the economic forecast for the county.

In his speech, Rupert discussed trends affecting Santa Barbara County and factors inside and outside local control. One of the main topics discussed by Rupert and other speakers was the county’s lack of housing.

“I know the answer,” Rupert said. “Build more houses. How hard is that?”

Rupert linked the lack of housing to the overall decrease in the county’s younger population in recent years, which he called “high level.” He explained that people in that age range are at the height of their earning potential.

One of the regions that has grown the most during the South Coast’s decline has been San Luis Obispo. It saw more economic growth since 2000, at 35% compared with Santa Barbara’s 15% over the same period.

Even though some issues are in the county’s control, Rupert also noted outside forces, such as tariffs and changing federal legislation.

He explained that one local industry being affected by the tariffs is the wine industry. In January, U.S. wine exports to Canada earned $32 million in revenue but have dropped to zero, according to Rupert.

He added that 80% of wine in the United States comes from California.

“These things hurt us, and it’s going to keep hurting us,” Rupert said.

County CEO Mona Miyasato shared that the county has 7,200 new housing units in the pipeline, of which 20% are affordable housing. She added that 460 new units have been approved in unincorporated areas, and 78% of them are considered affordable.

Miyasato also acknowledged that residents are leaving Santa Barbara County and moving inland to find housing, but that during the past year, the county has seen population growth of 0.6%.

“This upward trend is encouraging, and we hope it continues,” she said.

Miyasato added that new data show that Santa Barbara County’s median income level is $96,000 a year, but the county’s poverty rate is 7.6%.

She said that 80% of the county’s local revenue comes from property taxes. Even though the number of sales has decreased, Miyasato said the property values of individual homes have risen.

The county also saw a strong revenue stream from the transient occupancy tax, which it increased to 14% in 2024. The city of Santa Barbara is in the lead and is estimated to bring in $35.2 million, as much as all of the other cities in the county combined.

Santa Maria is the top generator of sales tax, at $3.5 million.

The event ended with a discussion between Randy Berg, board chair for the Santa Barbara South Coast Chamber of Commerce, and Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors chair Laura Capps.

During the discussion, Capps acknowledged the economic troubles ahead but emphasized the county’s resilience. She highlighted the county’s fiscal prudence and how it prepared.

“Something that I’m proud of is we passed a budget (of) $1.6 billion,” she said. “So, as much as it’s daunting given the federal and state landscape, we’ve made so many … smart investments, and we’re in a far better position than we would have been otherwise.”

Capps also talked about housing and praised local businesses that have begun to build workforce housing. She added that her goal is to take advantage of unused government land and develop it for employee housing.

Earlier in the event, the Chamber of Commerce revealed its newest Techtopia video that highlighted some of the county’s technology companies and their newest innovations.