An updated debris-flow evacuation map showing the Montecito, Summerland and Carpinteria areas affected by the devastating Jan. 9 storm was released by Santa Barbara County on Thursday afternoon.
The interactive online map was reviewed by operational staff from fire, law enforcement and county flood officials, said Deputy Chief Kevin Taylor of the Montecito Fire Protection District.
The map published by the county Office of Emergency Management will be updated when additional analysis is complete, Taylor said, and more map changes are expected to be finished and released in early December.
A scientific engineering firm was contracted with money from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and county to analyze the debris-flow risk map.
The map for the Thomas Fire burn area includes risk areas indicated in red that will be evacuated, and debris-flow fields, indicagted in blue.
Parcels on the map will be included in evacuations during a storm that’s predicted to cause debris flows. Residents can enter an address to check where they are located in potential post-fire hazard areas from the Thomas, Sherpa and Whittier fires.
The rainfall threshold that will prompt an evacuation of the red properties below the Thomas Fire burn scar has increased to 0.8 inches per hour due to vegetation regrowth in the foothills and the mountains.
The county has the risk map on its website here.
Taylor noted that “this map was developed shortly after Jan. 9,” when some Montecito creek channels and debris basins were still clogged with debris, large boulders and thick mud.
“If at anytime this winter you feel unsafe during a rainfall event, then please don’t be afraid to leave,” Taylor said. “You don’t have to wait for an emergency alert or notification.
“Don’t be afraid to take action,” he continued. “Trust your instincts.”
Taylor said some properties on the new map are not in the evacuation zones and not considered potentially vulnerable to debris flows, but at-risk of isolation by damage caused by potential debris flows.
Residents who refuse to comply with an evacuation order will not be forcibly removed from their house, but they should not expect rescue or other lifesaving assistance after the onset of the emergency event, Taylor explained.
If flooding or debris flows happen, residents may be stranded for several days, Taylor said.
“If your property is located in this area and you would like to stay during an evacuation order, please remember that it may be up to 14 days before you are able to leave,” he said. “It’s likely that you won’t have water, sewer, gas, electricity, cable or cellular service.”
Rob Lewin, director of the county Office of Emergency Management, explained the county’s new evacuation procedures and timeline for predictable storms, which begins when the National Weather Service alerts the county 72 to 48 hours before a major storm is forecast to arrive.
Lewin called the strategy “Ready, Set, Go.”
» 72 to 48 hours before the storm: The county Office of Emergency Management alerts the community of an upcoming storm of duration and intensity that poses a possible risk to property or life. Community members are recommended to closely monitor the situation, and should begin planning for potential evacuations.
» 48 to 24 hours before the storm: The Sheriff’s Office will issue a warning to affected areas of the possibilities of an evacuation because of an incoming storm with possible risk to property or life. Community members are urged to arrange transportation, confirm evacuation plans, gather items and be ready to leave. Take action as needed for people with large animals or mobility needs.
» 24 hours or less before the storm: The Sheriff’s Office orders people to leave if residents are in a designated evacuation area. The storm is capable of producing debris flows similar to the Jan. 9 disaster. Authorities will allow residents to return home when it’s safe.
“The evacuation order means go, and go now,” Lewin said.
Lewin said sometimes a storm can quickly develop with no warning and trigger flash flooding and debris flows. County officials could only have a few minutes — or no time at all — to notify the community, he said.
Mark Jackson, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Los Angeles/ Oxnard station, said mud and debris flows are difficult to predict, even after a storm arrives. Forecasters can typically assess the storm days in advance, but “if, when or where” the debris flow will take place is difficult to know exactly, he said.
Jackson urged residents to follow the instructions of local officials and have a response plan ready before the storm arrives.
“Please, please, please follow the instructions of local officials,” Jackson said. “Debris flows can move very fast.”
The January debris flows killed 23 people and destroyed or damaged hundreds of homes just weeks after the Thomas Fire charred most of the hillsides and mountains above Montecito.
The meeting was broadcast live on the county’s Facebook page and on the county’s YouTube channel.
A similar informational meeting is scheduled at 5:30 p.m. on Monday at the Veterans Memorial Building in Carpinteria, 941 Walnut Ave.
— Noozhawk staff writer Brooke Holland can be reached at bholland@noozhawk.com. Follow Noozhawk on Twitter: @noozhawk, @NoozhawkNews and @NoozhawkBiz. Connect with Noozhawk on Facebook.
