Santa Barbara County is in for a wet stretch of weather during Christmas week, with the potential for heavy rain and gusty winds that could significantly impact holiday travel, according to the National Weather Service.
The county’s Office of Emergency Management also issued a ReadySBC Alert on Friday urging residents to prepare for the coming storm.
Light rain or drizzle may begin as early as Sunday night or Monday, but forecasters say the main atmospheric river storm will arrive Tuesday and bring widespread hazards through at least Thursday, with the potential for lingering impacts into Friday and the weekend.
“The likelihood for the general Santa Barbara area to see over 2 inches is pretty high,” said Ryan Kittell, meteorologist with the NWS. “Maybe 2-5-inch range is probably the most likely outcome, but there’s still also a fairly high chance that we can get really big totals, like up to double that.”
In a higher-end scenario, he said urban areas could see 4-6 inches of rain, with 8-15 inches possible in the foothills and mountains.
Kittell said the storm is expected to peak around Wednesday, Christmas Eve, and warned that travel disruptions are likely during that window, regardless of how severe the rainfall becomes.
“I think the travel impact is almost certain,” he said. “Plus or minus 12 hours around Christmas Eve — that’s going to be the bulk of the storm. And there’s going to be rain on the roads. There’s going to be an impact on airports.
“Even on the floor,” he added, “I think people definitely need to prepare for ample travel issues.”
Kittell encouraged residents to make travel adjustments early if possible, especially for those planning to leave town around the holiday.
“If you can, you know, leave on the earlier side — like on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday or Tuesday morning maybe — that does better than waiting till later Tuesday and Wednesday,” he said.
In addition to rain, gusty southerly winds are expected to develop as the storm intensifies.
Forecast models show the strongest winds arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially in foothill and mountain areas. Gusts could reach up to 49 mph in Montecito and around 70 mph at Refugio on the Gaviota Coast, according to the NWS.
Forecasters also noted a slight chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday, which could lead to localized bursts of heavier rain during the peak of the storm.
Hazardous sea conditions are also expected to develop as the storm moves in, with the NWS warning of dangerous winds and swells along the coast starting Tuesday.
Coastal flooding is possible in vulnerable south-facing areas, particularly during high tide on Wednesday and Thursday, and smaller vessels could face hazardous or dangerous conditions throughout the week.
Santa Barbara County’s warm spell is expected to shift by Monday, with daytime highs settling into the low to mid-60s and overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s to low 50s.
Check the latest weather forecasts and weather-related alerts and advisories here.
For more information and preparedness tips, visit ReadySBC.org.