As Santa Barbara County residents continue to deal with the heat, experts say the high temperatures could last longer than normal and have wide-ranging effects for the region.
The county is continuing to experience the effects of a Super El Niño, which has led to hotter weather and warmer currents off the coast.
El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon that usually appears every two to four years when warmer water from one end of the Pacific Ocean makes its way to the other.
“Normally, a lot of the warmer waters are piled up on the western side of the Pacific, so the Southeast Asia side of the Pacific,” said Todd Hall, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service. “But in El Niño, those waters will shift east and basically pile up across the west coast of South America.”
As the currents move to the South American coastline, they begin to travel north to the western portion of the United States.
These waters can warm the cooler oceans of this side of the Pacific by 3 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit, which is warm even for this time of the year.
In addition to warmer weather, the event could lead to a wetter winter later in the year, or a drier one.
Hall said forecasts show an 81% chance of a strong El Niño this year. The Climate Prediction Center is predicting that the ocean temperatures could rise by 2 degrees Celsius, or possibly 2.5 degrees.
One of the difficult things for experts is knowing what kind of weather an El Niño could bring, especially a Super El Niño. What makes such events hard to predict is how rarely a strong El Niño occurs.
Records dating back to the 1950s show only seven confirmed Super El Niños, according to Hall. Five of those saw wetter winters, while the other two were dry years.
The last Super El Niño, according to Hall, was in 2014 to 2015. That period saw a dry winter.
“We’re likely going to see above-normal precipitation for the winter,” Hall said, “but every El Niño is different. There are still some outliers that could develop.”
While some worry about the extra rain or heat, others can see the weather event as a boon.
For fishermen, warmer waters can benefit the industry because new fish appear. As the warm currents move into the eastern portion of the ocean, tropical fish that are used to warmer climates will make their way east.
The extra fish mean that fishermen can catch more sea life and species that are not usually seen in this region, according to David Bacon.
Bacon has worked as a vessel charter captain for 35 years, teaches classes at Santa Barbara City College and serves on multiple ocean conservation boards. He also writes a column for Noozhawk.
“We get generally a few months of just amazing fishing for types of fish that we usually have to travel far south, like many, many hundreds of miles, to get to,” Bacon said. “So, it’s just wild and exciting when El Niño happens.”
He explained that the sudden increase in new sea life benefits fishermen since the effects of an El Niño can last for a few years.
The warm currents can bring in a variety of fish from the western and southern portion of the Pacific, including bonito, barracuda, yellowtail, dorado and sharks.
The dorado fish, also known as the Mahi-mahi, has been found near Anacapa Island. The warmer weather also tends to bring sand bass.
Even though the warmer water can bring more fish from the tropics, it can have negative effects on the native sea life.
The local kelp population, which in this region prefers colder water, may decline. The aquatic plant benefits the local habitat by providing places for sea life to hunt or hide. Some creatures will also feed on it.
The effects may take years for the local environment to recover, or — if it’s lucky — a La Niña will occur.
A La Niña will have an opposite effect on the ocean and cause the ocean temperatures to drop. This benefits the local wildlife and can help the kelp flourish again.
However, on land, the effects can mean more than temperature and rain. Both events can lead to mudslides, flooding, debris flows and more.
The Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency Management oversees preparing for such events, and coordinates with other local agencies to plan its response and recovery efforts.
Coordination can mean confirming the roles of different agencies, planning, monitoring conditions, preparing for heavy rain, conducting public outreach and being prepared for potential flooding, according to OEM Associate Director Stacy Silva.
The office partners with the eight cities across the county, law enforcement, the fire department, the American Red Cross and state agencies heading into the rainy season.
“For us in Santa Barbara County, the forecast of a potential El Niño doesn’t change our overall winter preparedness approaches,” Silva said. “However, we do then pay a little bit closer attention to … our forecasts, and we begin that coordination with our partners a little earlier.”
One of the biggest differences for the office this year is the amount of outreach done with the public because of the past few years.
“Our recent rain events in 2023 that caused some significant flooding and impacts are still prevalent in people’s minds,” Silva said. “So, the threat of another El Niño event or Super El Niño does prompt additional questions from the community and from our partners.”
Silva said the best way for residents to prepare for a wet winter is to inspect their homes and ensure they are ready for flooding or other events.
She recommended that homeowners buy sandbags, check that water runs away from their property, and have a shelter-in-place plan in case the road or neighborhood is flooded.
Silva also said residents should sign up for alerts from readysbc.org, where they can register to have messages sent to their phones.
