For reasons understood only by him, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid ranked comprehensive immigration reform as his third-highest priority for the 112th Congress behind reducing government spending and creating jobs.
Other pro-immigration senators such as Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., have floated trial balloons falsely suggesting that there may be more interest in reviving amnesty discussions than the casual observer may think. A few of the names Schumer mentions as possible Republican Senate allies are Lisa Murkowski, John McCain, Jon Kyl and Lindsey Graham.
And according to Capitol Hill rumors, Schumer is busy on the phone contacting all the usual suspects that include the AFL-CIO, the Service Employees International Union, the ethnic identity lobby and evangelical groups to test their interest in a renewed amnesty effort.
What’s interesting about this loosely formed coalition is that it’s headed by two senators who were just re-elected and therefore won’t have to face the public again until 2016, namely Schumer and Reid.
When asked directly for a comment from Politico.com about possibly joining with Schumer on an amnesty proposal, here’s what some of the senators said: McCain and Kyl said they won’t budge until a 10-point border security plan is in place and has been certified as effective by the governors of those states. Graham, who has been hot and cold on immigration for more than a decade, won’t venture anything more than to comment: “It’s in the infant stage.” As for Murkowski, she told Schumer: “Right now, I’m just so focused on what’s happening with the energy issues, I haven’t been engaged in it.”
Based on the collective lack of commitment those comments reflect, no Republican stampede toward amnesty legislation is under way.
And given that the alliance of unions, churches and special interest groups has been completely ineffective in delivering comprehensive immigration reform for more than a decade, there’s little reason to anticipate that it will be any more successful in 2011 with a divided Congress than it was in 2010 when Democrats controlled both chambers.
Whatever a handful of pro-amnesty senators from either party may wish for, the harsh political reality of a toxic amnesty debate will block them. To begin with, the House of Representatives solidly backs immigration law enforcement. House Judiciary Chairman Lamar Smith has promised to require mandatory E-Verify for all employers that would ensure that only legally authorized workers could get U.S. jobs.
Smith also has pledged to enforce the 287(g) program that allows state and local law enforcement jurisdictions to enter into an agreement with the Department of Homeland Security to help enforce federal immigration laws. Smith co-authored the bill.
Knowingly or not, Schumer’s relentless devotion to comprehensive immigration reform puts several incumbent Senate Democrats at risk. In the 2010 November elections, Senate Democrats lost six seats, including some held by amnesty proponents such as Arkansas’ Blanche Lincoln, Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter and Illinois’ Roland Burris. Enforcement advocates John Boozman, Pat Toomey and Mark Kirk replaced them.
Going into 2012, Connecticut independent Joe Lieberman and North Dakota Democrat Kent Conrad have announced their retirement. Whoever replaces Lieberman and Conrad could not possibly be more pro-amnesty than the outgoing senators.
The 2012 ballot will include 21 incumbent Democrats. Many of them are vulnerable for a variety of reasons, including their immigration advocacy. Among the most at risk are Florida’s Bill Nelson, Michigan’s Debbie Stabenow and Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey.
In the unlikely event that Schumer should be successful in his goal to bring amnesty legislation to the floor, only the most secure Democrats would support him. What the November 2010 election results made abundantly clear is that amnesty advocacy is the political kiss of death.
— Joe Guzzardi has written editorial columns — mostly about immigration and related social issues — since 1990 and is a senior writing fellow for Californians for Population Stabilization (CAPS). After 25 years as an English as a Second Language teacher in the Lodi Unified School District, Guzzardi has retired to Pittsburgh. He can be reached at joeguzzardi@capsweb.org.