California’s likely voters approach the elections this year with big concerns about the economy and the state’s fiscal future, according to a statewide survey released Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California, with support from the James Irvine Foundation.

Despite signs of an improving economy, an overwhelming majority of likely voters (84 percent) believe that the state is in a recession. Nearly half (48 percent) say the recession is serious. Fewer (36 percent) say it is moderate or mild, and just 14 percent say the state is not in recession. Most (62 percent) expect bad economic times in the next year, and most (59 percent) see the state going in the wrong direction.

While a strong majority of likely voters (78 percent) describe the state budget situation as a big problem, slightly more than half (52 percent) say they would vote yes on Gov. Jerry Brown’s tax initiative when they are read the ballot title and a summary (40 percent no, 8 percent undecided). Most Democratic likely voters (71 percent) would vote yes, most Republicans (65 percent) would vote no, and independents are more closely divided (49 percent yes, 41 percent no).

Because this is the first time PPIC has been able to ask about the governor’s proposal using the ballot title and a summary, direct comparison to previous surveys is not possible. However, past surveys found majority support for his plan to temporarily raise taxes (68 percent January 2012, 60 percent December 2011).

Among likely voters supporting the initiative, 69 percent say their local government services have been affected a lot by recent state budget cuts. But so do most — 61 percent — of those who would vote no.

“A slim majority support Gov. Brown’s proposed tax initiative,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. “Of those who plan to vote against it, most also say that their local governments have been affected a lot by recent state budget cuts and they would prefer to deal with the budget gap mainly through spending cuts.“

Brown’s overall budget plan calls for a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, and 45 percent of likely voters prefer this approach. About a third (34 percent) prefer that spending cuts mostly be used to fill the budget gap, and 11 percent prefer mostly tax increases.

Brown’s budget proposal calls for automatic spending cuts to K-12 public schools if his tax initiative is rejected in November. Most likely voters (72 percent) oppose these trigger cuts, a view held across parties (Democrats 83 percent, independents 71 percent, Republicans 61 percent).

The governor’s job approval rating among likely voters is at 46 percent, similar to January (44 percent). Since taking office in January 2011, his approval rating has changed little, but disapproval has grown (20 percent January 2011, 38 percent today). Fewer are undecided about Brown (33 percent January 2011, 16 percent today).

By comparison, the Legislature’s approval rating remains low, at 21 percent among likely voters. Approval of the Legislature has been below 25 percent among this group since April 2008.

Half Support Water Bond, Oppose Building High-Speed Rail

In light of constraints on the state budget, two high-profile infrastructure projects are the focus of debate: an $11.1 billion water bond that is on the November ballot, and the planning and construction of a high-speed rail system, which was approved by voters in 2008 (53 percent to 47 percent).

While a large majority of likely voters — 70 percent — say the water supply in their area is a big problem or somewhat of a problem, there is less agreement on the water bond. Half of likely voters (51 percent) say they would vote yes (35 percent no, 14 percent undecided). Thirty-seven percent say it is very important that voters pass the measure, 32 percent say it is somewhat important, and 23 percent say it is not too important or not at all important.

California has received federal funding for the high-speed rail project, and the governor recently expressed strong support for it. Some have criticized the projected cost of $100 billion. Today, likely voters are more likely to oppose (53 percent) than support (43 percent) building a high-speed rail system. Across regions, Californians in the San Francisco Bay Area (57 percent) and Los Angeles (54 percent) are in favor, Central Valley residents are split (50 percent favor, 47 percent oppose), and those in the Other Southern California region are opposed (52 percent oppose, 42 percent favor). At the same time, 53 percent of likely voters say high-speed rail is at least somewhat important for the future quality of life and economic vitality of California.

Term Limits, Cigarette Tax Draw Majority Support

Two ballot initiatives on the June ballot enjoy strong majority support in the early stages of the campaign. Proposition 28 would reduce the amount of time state legislators may serve from 14 years to 12 years and would allow the 12 years of service in one house. The measure has the support of 68 percent of likely voters (24 percent oppose, 8 percent undecided). Majorities support it across party, ideological, regional and demographic groups. Sixty-seven percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on this measure is important, and 22 percent say it is very important. Likely voters’ views of Proposition 28 are in keeping with their general perceptions of legislative term limits: 68 percent say they are a good thing for California, while just 11 percent say they are a bad thing.

“Californians have steadfastly believed that legislative term limits are a good thing for California, even as policy experts disagree about their overall impact,” Baldassare said. “Proposition 28 has strong majority support, and most of those who would vote yes on this reform also say that term limits are a good thing.”

Proposition 29 would impose an additional $1 tax on each pack of cigarettes and an equivalent tax increase on other tobacco products. The revenues would fund research for cancer and tobacco-related diseases. When read the ballot title and label for this initiative, 67 percent of likely voters would vote yes, 30 percent would vote no, and 3 percent are undecided. The proposition has majority support across political, ideological, regional and demographic groups. Most (78 percent) say the outcome of the vote on the measure is important to them, with 41 percent saying it is very important and 37 percent saying it is somewhat important. Most (63 percent) also say they support the general idea of increasing taxes on the purchase of cigarettes to help pay for state spending.

Romney, Santorum in Tight Race; Obama Leads in Matchup

As the June presidential primary approaches, Republican candidates Mitt Romney (28 percent) and Rick Santorum (22 percent) are in a close race — within the margin of error for GOP likely voters. They are followed by Newt Gingrich (17 percent) and Ron Paul (8 percent), with 22 percent of Republican likely voters undecided (the PPIC survey was taken before Super Tuesday). Support for Santorum grew 11 points (4 percent to 15 percent) between December and January and has grown 7 more points since January.

In a hypothetical matchup for the presidential race, President Barack Obama leads the Republican candidate by 16 points (53 percent to 37 percent), with 10 percent undecided.

President Obama’s job approval rating among California likely voters has improved after sinking to a low of 47 percent last September. Today it is at 55 percent, the highest level since April 2010 (56 percent).

Half Favor a Congress Controlled by Democrats

When it comes to the outcome of congressional elections, half of likely voters (50 percent) prefer that Congress be controlled by Democrats, while 35 percent prefer Republican control (8 percent unsure, 7 percent volunteer they want neither party). A month before the 2006 midterm elections, 55 percent of likely voters preferred Democratic control; they were closely divided in October 2010 (45 percent Democratic control, 43 percent Republican control). Today, just 17 percent approve of the way Congress is handling its job (79 percent disapprove).

Support Grows for Legalizing Same-Sex Marriage

A number of social issues are being debated this election year. Californians’ views have undergone a marked shift on one issue: same-sex marriage. Today, 56 percent of likely voters favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to legally marry — up from 47 percent in October 2008, just before voters passed Proposition 8, which banned same-sex marriage.

Among registered voters, majorities of Democrats (72 percent) and independents (56 percent) today favor legalizing same-sex marriage. Most Republicans (61 percent) are opposed. Support has grown in most political and demographic groups since October 2008. It is up 16 points among Democrats (56 percent to 72 percent), 11 points among Republicans (23 percent to 34 percent), and is similar among independents (53 percent to 56 percent). Support is up 10 points among Latinos (36 percent to 46 percent) and 7 points among whites (50 percent to 57 percent). Across age groups, support grew 10 points among those ages 18 to 34 (53 percent to 63 percent), 13 points among those age 55 or older (34 percent to 47 percent), and is similar among those ages 35 to 54 (45 percent to 48 percent). Among evangelical Christians, support increased 15 points (21 percent to 36 percent).

In the context of contentious debate about birth control and abortion at the national level, how do California likely voters view the role of government when it comes to the availability of abortion? A strong majority (76 percent) say the government should not interfere with access, while 20 percent say more laws should be passed to restrict it. This view holds across registered voter groups (Democrats 83 percent, Republicans 68 percent, independents 68 percent). Across religious groups, 70 percent of Protestants, 55 percent of Catholics and 54 percent of evangelical Christians say the government should not interfere with access.

The survey asked about several other issues that have been the subject of election-year debate:

» Immigration: About half of likely voters (51 percent) say immigrants are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills, and 39 percent say they are a burden because they use public services. Asked what should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years, 62 percent would give them a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status, while 31 percent say they should be deported.

» Health-care reform: About half of likely voters (49 percent) support the changes in the health-care system enacted by Congress and the Obama administration, while 44 percent are opposed. Most (65 percent) oppose the individual mandate, which requires Americans to buy health insurance coverage or pay a fine. Thirty-one percent favor this provision.

» Government regulation of business: Half of likely voters (50 percent) say government regulation of business does more harm than good, and 44 percent say it is necessary.

» Environmental regulation: Do stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy or are they worth the cost? Likely voters are divided (47 percent to 47 percent).

» Gun control: Likely voters are divided about whether the government goes too far in restricting the rights of citizens to own guns (45 percent) or does not do enough to regulate access to guns (48 percent).

About the Survey

Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,001 California adult residents interviewed on landlines and cell phones from Feb. 21-28. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish according to respondents’ preferences.

The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is plus or minus 3.4 percent for all adults, plus or minus 3.8 percent for the 1,334 registered voters, plus or minus 4.2 percent for the 859 likely voters, and plus or minus 7.4 percent for the 281 Republican primary likely voters.

Click here to read the full survey.