Worried Montecito residents packed the Montecito Union School auditorium Monday afternoon with one thing on their mind: flood control.
Officials and staff hoping to keep them informed — and perhaps put their minds somewhat at ease — presented information and fielded questions from a full room for roughly an hour and a half about storm preparation, El Niño, why parts of Montecito are prone to flooding and what the county is doing to help.
Breaking Down El Niño
Todd Hall, a meteorologist from the National Weather Service, said El Niño is not a storm. It’s a naturally occurring phenomenon that typically appears every two to four years, when warm water from one end of the Pacific Ocean travels to the other.
“It sets the stage for storms in California,” Hall explained.
A Super El Niño this year has led to hotter weather and warmer currents off the coast of California and Santa Barbara County this summer and fall.
While forecasters predict an 81% chance of a strong El Niño this year, it can be difficult to know exactly what that means for Santa Barbara County. It could lead to a wetter winter, but it also could lead to a drier one, Hall explained.
Records for El Niño go back only 75 years. There have been seven confirmed Super El Niños: five had wet winters, while the other two had dry ones.
“There’s no clear-cut, real guidance we have with El Niño because it’s such a new phenomenon,” Hall said. “… It’s still new science.”
Read Noozhawk’s El Niño breakdown here.
Why Do Parts of Montecito Flood?
The phased Montecito Flood Control Master Plan — a detailed analysis of Montecito’s landscape after the devastating 2018 debris flow — found that the unincorporated area’s natural creeks are not large enough to handle extreme events.
Because of that, “no amount of routine maintenance is going to prevent those creeks from flooding their banks if we get extreme rainfall,” said Matt Griffin, the deputy director of the county’s Flood Control District.
Nearby areas, such as Carpinteria, handle flooding better because of concrete-lined channels that were built in the 1960s and 1970s.
Griffin said he wasn’t sure why concrete-lined channels weren’t also installed in Montecito at that time, but it most likely would have been a “tough sell,” given Montecito’s preferred aesthetic.
Flood control “just wasn’t identified as a priority” then, he said, “but it’s a priority now.”
Montecito’s “ambitious” plan — as Griffin put it — identified several ways to help improve creek flood flow capacity.
That included, among other ideas, creating eight additional debris basins, constructing 54 new all-weather crossings and reducing flood risk on 851 parcels.
However, that is estimated to cost more than $1 billion, according to Tom Conti, engineering manager with the Flood Control District.
The county is now focused on collecting more detailed data throughout Montecito, which is expected to be completed in June 2027. That data will help the county secure grant funding at both the state and federal levels.
“Will that Master Plan be built in its entirety? Honestly, probably not,” Griffin said. “But this is a critical step to getting real projects underway and going. It seems a little daunting at this stage, but all of our major capital improvements projects were at this stage at one point.”
He pointed to the Buena Vista Basin, a project launched after the 2018 debris flows. Most of the funding for the basin was supposed to come from a phased hazard mitigation grant program by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
The design and relevant acquisitions for that project were completed in May 2024, but FEMA has not yet authorized funding so that the county can begin construction.
“FEMA is undergoing a lot of stress and change these days,” he said. “We’re not sure if this grant program is going to be able to construct the project for us. There’s a chance, next year, that we’ll get the approvals necessary and we’ll build this next year. I think that’s unlikely.”
If the FEMA funding doesn’t come through, the district will pursue other grant opportunities or build it using local funds out of the county’s Flood Control Benefit Assessment, into which Montecito residents pay.
That may extend that timeline, but the basin “will get built eventually,” he said.
Beyond the Buena Vista Basin, the county also built the Randall Road Basin and modified three others to make them more efficient in the aftermath of the Jan. 9, 2018, deadly debris flows.
In the Meantime: Routine Maintenance
County Flood Control inspects its facilities and creek channels countywide annually in March and April, according to Andrew Roth, the environmental manager for the Flood Control District.
Crews look for vegetation, sediment accumulation, culvert condition, concrete repairs, potholes and other potential problems. They obtain permits for that work, which goes through an environmental review process and public comment, before crews head out in the summer to fix any issues.
Flood Control aims to wrap up that process by December, ahead of the rainy season, Roth explained. It is done every year, regardless of the weather forecast.
Other agencies, such as the Santa Barbara County Public Transportation Division and Caltrans, also have their own flood control procedures.
Griffin encouraged community members to reach out to the county if they have any concerns or spot any issues that may have popped up between the district’s inspections in the spring and when work begins in the summer. They can do that through the county’s new work service request system.
If there is a large storm and debris accumulates across Montecito and in its creeks, the county will remove that debris, sort it and transport it to Goleta Beach or Carpinteria Beach at Ash Avenue for beach nourishment, Griffin said.
Crews also will stabilize or repair any damaged infrastructure.
Make a Plan Now
This year, Flood Control is widening its public outreach and “beefing up” online resources, Griffin said.
That includes homeowner guides for prevention and a service where Flood Control staff will evaluate a property for winter storm preparedness.
“Winter storm and flood preparation is a shared responsibility,” Griffin said. “It’s not just county Flood Control, it’s not just the state, it’s not the federal government, but it’s also you — the community.”
Residents should trim their trees, clear their gutters and make sure their properties drain well.
They must make sure “the property is in good condition” before any storm hits the area, he said.
Residents should make an evacuation plan and have a go-bag ready. Even if an official evacuation warning or order hasn’t been issued by the Sheriff’s Office, if residents feel unsafe or they know they need more time to leave, they should evacuate, officials said.
They also can keep an eye on real-time rainfall and stream gauge data. The county has real-time cameras, including a few in Montecito, that track creek flows.
When rain is in the forecast, the Montecito Fire Protection District offers free sandbags. The district also regularly increases staffing ahead of extreme weather events, according to spokeswoman Christina Atchison.
Click here to sign up for ReadySBC Alerts.
Montecito Fire, the Sheriff’s Office and the Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency Management post emergency updates to X.
The fire department also shares updates on the AM 1610 radio station, which Atchison recommended that residents keep tuned to in their vehicles.
Santa Barbara County has scheduled a virtual El Niño briefing from 5:30 p.m. to 7 p.m. on Oct. 1.
