A very wet El Niño winter could be on the way for Santa Barbara County, and officials are concerned about the possibility of not receiving federal funding for repairing emergency storm damage.
Heavy rainfall in 2023 and early 2026 caused major flooding and damage to roads, parks and other public infrastructure. The post-Thomas Fire storms caused the deadly Jan. 9, 2018, Montecito debris flows that destroyed and damaged hundreds of homes and killed 23 people.
“We have a lot of expertise here, unfortunately, a lot of experience with disasters in this county,” Public Works Director Chris Sneddon said.
The county faces “resource constraints” that it hasn’t before, he told the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday. He and other department heads attended the meeting to update supervisors on preparations for winter storms.
Sneddon said the county spent about $60 million on storm disaster-related costs for the 2023-24 year. It has only received about $4 million in reimbursement from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
“So it’s putting a bit of strain on the reserves set aside for these types of events,” he said.
For winter storms in early 2026, the county spent about $8 million on its response and repairs. The county declared a local emergency, but the state and federal government did not — “so we pay for that ourselves,” Sneddon said.
The future of FEMA and reimbursement for emergency response is “in flux,” he added.
“FEMA would have a higher threshold for when they do get involved in declaring disasters, and when they do declare they’re probably going to bring less resources to a disaster and put more of the burden on the state and the local agencies,” Sneddon said.
It doesn’t appear that California is going to step up as a backstop for this potential drop in federal funding, so that’s even more of a financial burden on local agencies for any upcoming winter disasters, he said.
Public Works and other departments will “be looking more strategically prioritizing what work we take on this winter,” Sneddon said. The core mission is to protect life and safety, he added.
He said the post-storm work will be evaluated based on the size of the storm and timing (indicating whether the county expects more storms that winter, or not).
Supervisors were concerned about the lack of FEMA reimbursement and what it could mean for future repairs.
It’s important for money to flow quickly after an emergency, Supervisor Joan Hartmann said. She recalled going to Washington, D.C. to lobby for federal funding after the Montecito debris flows.
“For us on the board, this is a cautionary tale about (how) we need to sock away as much money as we possibly can, because we want to be ready to repair and rebuild what everyone is predicting is going to be something very serious,” Hartmann said.
The National Weather Service predicts strong El Niño conditions, with warmer temperatures and warmer ocean temperatures.
Those conditions bring a higher likelihood of above-average rainfall, according to Matt Griffin, the county’s deputy director of flood control.
Records going back to the 1950s show seven confirmed Super El Niños, meteorologist Todd Hall previously told Noozhawk. Five of those saw wetter-than-usual winters, while two of them were dry years.
The 1999 season (a strong El Niño) had the highest-ever rainfall on record for Santa Barbara County. The next strong El Niño in 2016 was a below-average rain year.
“Some of you will recall, 2016, it was coined Godzilla El Niño. That turned out to be a dry year,” Griffin said.
