Santa Barbara County is getting ready for the possibility of a very wet winter as it deals with the impacts of a Super El Niño.

However, Todd Hall, a warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service, warned that there’s not enough scientific data to back up the claims that this will be a severe storm season. 

“Overall this year, for a Santa Barbara County resident, your risk is higher than average for our winter storms, but overall it’s still low at this point,” Hall said during a recent county information session.

El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon that usually appears every two to four years when warmer water from one end of the Pacific Ocean makes its way to the other.

While there is generally an uptick in rain during strong El Niño years, it doesn’t always mean there will be significant rainfall. 

In the 2015-16 winter there was a “strong El Niño” and the county got below average rainfall during that period, according to Hall. 

Looking to the rest of October through December, Hall said people can expect warmer than normal temperatures across the county, as well as chances of “above normal” precipitation for the next several months.

The county is already experiencing the effects of a Super El Niño, which has led to hotter weather and warmer currents off the coast. 

Read Noozhawk’s El Niño breakdown here.

With the uncertainty, residents aare encouraged to prepare the same way they would for any other winter storms.

“An El Niño doesn’t tell us exactly what storm we’re going to get, but it tells us we need to be prepared for the possibility of significant weather,” said Kelsey Gerckens Buttitta, communications manager for the Santa Barbara County. 

An El Niño could mean heavy rain, strong winds, flooding, landslides, debris flows, road closures and power outages.

“It doesn’t mean every community will see every one of those impacts,” Gerckens Buttitta said. “But what it means is we should be ready.”

Stacy Silva, the interim director of the County’s Office of Emergency Management, said the office is doing direct outreach with property owners who live near or within burn scars, which have a high risk of debris flow during storms. 

Those living or working near the 2024 Lake Fire or 2025 Gifford Fire burn scars should take instructions from first responders seriously, Silva said.

“Anytime you feel unsafe, do not wait for an official evacuation notification to leave,” Silva said.

Silva also recommends residents use the community hazards awareness map to see if their neighborhood has a history of flooding.

Matt Griffin, deputy director for water resources at the Santa Barbara County Public Works Department, said the county prepares every year when there is a possibility of extreme storms and flooding.

Crews are currently working to maintain creeks at their natural capacity, but he warned that many creeks in urban or suburban areas have limited natural capacity.

“So no matter how much maintenance we do in those creeks, there’s a chance of flooding,” Griffin said.

During storm response, Griffin said, residents can expect to see crews clearing debris basins and creeks and working on debris management. 

Because of the interest around the El Niño, Griffin said they are sharing more resources for the public, including a homeowner’s guide for how to protect properties from flooding and debris.

“Flood awareness and prevention is a shared responsibility,” Griffin said. “It’s not just county Flood Control, it’s not just the state or FEMA. It’s you, the citizens that need to also be prepared.”

Residents can start preparing by seeing if they live in a FEMA special flood hazard area.

On residential property, Griffin recommends clearing drainage paths, inspecting and clearing roofs and gutters, addressing erosion-prone areas, trimming trees, and securing sandbags.

County sandbags will be available starting Oct. 15 in Santa Maria, Bulleton and Goleta, and numerous cities and fire departments have their own distribution sites. 

Click here for a list of sandbag distribution sites.

Residents are also encouraged to sign up for emergency alerts at ReadySBC.com