Former Ambassador Dennis Ross led off his talk at UCSB on Sunday by asking if the Trump administration actually possesses a “Middle East policy.”
He answered his own rhetorical question with a qualified yes, and Ross called it a standard President Trump policy approach of “maximum pressure.” A seasoned diplomat and Middle Eastern scholar, Ross couched his discourse in measured, descriptive diplomatic tones, and of course refrained from overt criticism of the U.S. State Department, Secretary Michael Pompeo or President Trump (see 4.1.1.).
Ross delved into the Trump administration policy by stressing that it does have a policy but definitely lacks any “strategies.” Strategic moves are action plans designed to achieve an overall policy. A given example of the administration’s lack of strategic thinking is how we are attempting to defeat ISIS (now confined to small areas in Syria, but not gone). Ross helped us see how the effective military intervention is really all we are doing in the area. Strategies to keep the indigenous population in place, to give rebuilding assistance and other help, to improve the ravaged regions — our government attempts none of this. Thus, ISIS will always have a haven of support among these displaced residents of the area.
Ross discussed the Trump policy and strategic shortfalls in three specific Middle Eastern areas: against ISIS (in Syria), against Iran and in the Holy Land, attempting to broker enduring peace between Israel and the Palestinians (Ross quotes Trump calling it “the ultimate deal”).
He credits Trump’s consistent “maximum pressure” offense against North Korea as helpful in bringing Kim Jong Un to the table via getting global agreements on sanctions vervus North Korea, which has created a less tense atmosphere about Kim and his nukes.
We see the same maximum pressure approach in Trump’s covert war on Iran. Note how it’s like the mounting trade war against China (raising tariffs). Against the advice of the European Union nations and especially our NATO allies Germany, France and the United Kingdom, the administration will begin round two of heightened sanctions on Iran starting Nov. 5. This is a consequence of total pressure on Iran when we unilaterally broke out of the John Kerry–President Obama Iran denuclearization treaty in 2017.
Ross wisely noted that the Iranian economy is in complete shambles, and he asserted that it’s mostly their own fault, but imposition of much tougher sanctions Nov. 5 will bite hard on an already shaky system. He believes the Ayatollahs will hold out on the bet that Trump won’t be re-elected in 2020, although others believe open war is more likely especially with Trump’s heavy backing of Saudi Arabia (who hates Iran).
Ross tried to be hopeful about the big question. Does the administration have a policy and strategies to broker peace between Israel and the Palestinians? He outlined a long series of actions that might lead to the ultimate Mideast peace deal, but clearly he also was stating that the State Department and Trump do not have much hope or much in place.
It was telling what Ambassador Ross did not bring up in his learned talk:
» the former U.S. policy favorite: the two-state solution
» Jerusalem’s role as a capital, and Trump abruptly moving the U.S. Embassy there from Tel Aviv (with no Israeli concessions)
» Israel’s expanding illegal colonies in the West Bank Palestinian homeland
One assumes the two-state solution with an independent Palestinian nation-state is now effectively dead, and Ross never addressed this. He did mention that a key sticking point for the Palestinians remains that “East Jerusalem would have to be their capital.” There will be no movement on this issue.
It surprised this listener at UCSB’s Corwin Pavilion not to hear about the state of Israel’s own regional geo-political goals, and how they fit with Trump’s aggressive policy. Ross did note that Israel would never allow rockets to be stationed near their small country again (like happened in Lebanon), and it has undertaken more than 200 aerial raids on areas in Syria to stop this from happening. On May 10, there were more than 70 Israeli raids into Syria. An Israeli-Russia conflict can’t be ruled out. Aside from this point, Ross inexplicably ignored Israel’s continuing occupation of the Palestinian West Bank.
The administration’s “maximum pressure” policies also require maximum support from the Middle East’s only military super-power: our ally, the State of Israel. By abandoning the two-state idea and uniting with Iran’s sworn enemy, Saudi Arabia, Trump’s pro-Israel policy also places maximum pressure on the Palestinians and Abbas to accept the ongoing encroachment of illegal Israeli colonies in the West Bank. The right-wing Israeli government under Benjamin Netanyahu has always vehemently urged the United States to take Iran down. There is no doubt that the Ayatollahs’ “malign behavior” and support of Hezbollah in Lebanon need to be stopped. The question is whether outright aggression via economic warfare (the sanctions) and egging our proxy Saudi Arabia on (e.g. in Yemen) will achieve that goal. Most of our allies, except Israel, disagree with Trump on these points.
Ross mentioned the illegal colonies only once, calling them “settlements” and thus using an imperialistic Israeli term, and he stressed they “only cover 5 percent” of the West Bank area. With respect, Ambassador Ross forgets that since the Six-Day War of 1967, more than 330,000 Israeli Jews have colonized the West Bank (not part of the 1948 original re-establishment of Israel), and constructed eight major settlements along with scores of small equally illegal “settlements” in land not given in 1948. Until this geo-political issue and the status of Jerusalem are solved, there is no credible Trump policy in the Middle East.
Ross’ talk was sponsored by the Taubman Foundation Endowed Symposia in Jewish Studies at UCSB, so one would not expect him to openly criticize Israeli policy or President Trump’s extreme tilt toward Israel and Saudi Arabia. Ross has an exemplary record as a U.S. diplomat, including successfully brokering the important 1997 Hebron Agreement (see 4.1.1 for his books). Despite his robust efforts to be diplomatic and nonjudgmental, Ross’s unfair characterization of Palestinian resistance as part of a “victimization narrative” clearly reveals his pro-Israel stance.
Ross spoke fluently for 70 minutes without notes and in full command of his subject. With the many ambassadorial posts left vacant, many in the audience wondered why the State Department would not want to tap him for such a post. Despite his fervent support for now-disgraced Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, Ross would certainly be a more balanced voice in the administration’s current maximum pressure on Iran at the behest of Netanyahu and Israeli hard-liners.
4-1-1
» Dennis Ross, a distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute, served in senior national security positions under Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. He serves as a Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He is the author of several books, including 2015’s Doomed to Succeed and, especially recommended by introducer Professor Richard Hecht, Statecraft and How to Restore America’s Standing in the World (2007). For background, see also UCSB’s Salim Yaqub’s Imperfect Strangers: Americans, Arabs and U.S.-Middle East Relations in the 1970s (Cornell University Press, 2016) and Avi Shavit’s 2013 My Promised Land.
— Dan McCaslin is the author of Stone Anchors in Antiquity, and has written extensively about the local backcountry. He serves as an archaeological site steward for the U.S. Forest Service in the Los Padres National Forest. He welcomes reader ideas for future Noozhawk columns, and can be reached at cazmania3@gmail.com. Click here to read additional columns. The opinions expressed are his own.
