Can a candidate win a seat on the Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors with virtually no money in the bank?

The answer soon will be known.

Republican Frank Troise is either a brilliant political strategist who outsmarted everyone, or he is a naive also-ran who blew the GOP’s biggest chance to swing the power on the Board of Supervisors.

Troise has a low $2,867 in the bank and has raised a total of about $12,000, of which nearly half is from the Santa Barbara County Deputy Sheriffs Association.

“This is just the beginning of the campaign,” Dave King, Troise’s campaign manager, told Noozhawk.

Lompoc Mayor Jenelle Osborne, another candidate in the contest, has $100 in the bank.

Incumbent Joan Hartmann has about $168,000 in her war chest.

Typically, candidates who raise the most money in campaigns win because there’s a direct correlation between fundraising and the ability to reach voters through mailers, door hangers and digital advertisements.

For all his bluster, Troise has not raised the kind of money typically associated with a candidate running for a powerful seat on the Board of Supervisors.

He and his campaign team believe that because he is the only Republican in the contest that he is going to skate into the November election.

If a candidate doesn’t get 50.1% of the vote in the March 5 primary, the top two vote-getters will face each other in a runoff. King, also Buellton’s mayor, said Troise also is not raising money because Assembly Bill 1439 has made it difficult.

The bill states that candidates who accept more than $250 from developers or unions cannot vote on their projects for one year after the time of the contribution.

“It is making it difficult for local politicians to raise money,” King said. “The old way of campaigning because of the Assembly bill is making it difficult to have these huge numbers.”

A local political strategist not affiliated with anyone in the Third District race told Noozhawk that such logic is “preposterous,” and that Troise wouldn’t take office for another year, if elected, and therefore wouldn’t have to recuse himself.

“The real reason for his paltry sum is his refusal to pick up the phone and make fundraising calls,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Troise actually has a campaign deficit, which shows he owes $5,300 in outstanding debts.

King said the campaign has some fundraisers coming up in the valley and in Goleta.

Troise has received support from the Santa Barbara County Deputy Sheriffs Association and the Republican Party, so those entities could make independent expenditures on his behalf.

Further fueling the drama in the contest is that Republican perennial candidate Mike Stoker sent an email to his supporters, which was widely circulated in the community, in which he accused Troise of being a “sham” candidate for not raising money.

The Third District is the swing seat on the Board of Supervisors, and Democrats have held the power since 2008. Former California Assemblyman Brooks Firestone was the last Republican to hold the seat.

After Isla Vista, and about 10,000 voters were removed from the Third District in the last redistricting, Republicans saw it as their big, once-in-a-lifetime chance to swing the seat in favor of a more business-minded, developer-friendly board.

However, Troise has not excited the Republican base with his fundraising numbers.

Osborne, a no-party-preference candidate, jumped into the contest late, and agreed to an expenditure limit of $96,000.

“If you want a candidate who will spend all their money on ads and putting up signs, that’s fine, but if you are the type of voter who wants to be connected to and relatable to a candidate, I can guarantee you that I am the candidate that the voters want to see,” Osborne said.

She said that no matter how much money she raises, she feels like a winner.

“If I am successful, great,” Osborne said. “If I am not, we have already seen the conversation elevated in the Third District.”

Hartmann’s campaign manager, Mary Rose, told Noozhawk that fundraising is going well, and that she has worked hard to get her name out in Lompoc.

Another big change in the campaign this year is that about 10,000 voters in Isla Vista, who typically vote Democrat, were taken out of the district.

“Joan is having great success with her fundraising. She has strong grassroots support throughout her district,” Rose said.

In the First District, incumbent Das Williams has a heavy fundraising lead over challenger Roy Lee, a Carpinteria city councilman.

Williams has $225,000 in cash in the bank. The supervisor has always been a top fundraiser in his campaigns and has longtime connections to the Santa Barbara County Democratic Party.

His chief of staff, Darcel Elliott, is the volunteer chair of the party. The party brings significant volunteer resources to its endorsed candidates.

Williams’ district representative, Spencer Brandt, is also his campaign manager, and is taking a leave of absence from the county job to work on the campaign.

Williams took donations of $5,500 from CP1 Supply Systems, a cannabis grower in Carpinteria. He has been criticized for accepting contributions from the cannabis industry when drafting the county’s cannabis ordinance in 2019.

He also took $1,000 from Pat Radis, one of the owners of an approved cannabis dispensary on Santa Clause Lane in Carpinteria.

In addition, he has taken more than $10,000 from trade unions this cycle.

“Yes, by our calculation we have only 6% of contributions from cannabis farmers,” Williams said. “I am glad to be associated with the farmers that have installed the most carbon scrubbers to ensure improved odor control.”

Of the union donations, Williams said, “I am honored to receive support from thousands of local working people through their membership in organized labor. Most working-class people don’t have enough money to make political contributions except through their union.”

Where Williams has struggled is in not getting the endorsement of the Santa Barbara Women’s Political Committee, support he received over challenger Laura Capps in the 2020 campaign.

Paula Lopez, president of the WPC, said that both Williams and opponent Roy Lee interviewed for the endorsement, but neither mustered two-thirds of the vote.

“The vote should speak for itself,” Lopez told Noozhawk. “We are a feminist organization; all candidates must agree with our policies.”

She noted that the WPC is nonpartisan and separate from the local Democratic Party.

“We don’t abide by the party’s recommendation,” Lopez said. “I don’t think any candidate should assume there would be an endorsement because there was an endorsement in the past.”

Williams did not offer an explanation for why he did not get the endorsement.

“I will make efforts to learn and grow as a feminist and advocate for gender equality and hope to earn the board’s support in the future,” said Williams, who noted that he has been endorsed by the Democratic Party and the Sierra Club.

Lee, a Carpinteria city councilman, has $17,543 in the bank. He has a smattering of donations between $99 and $1,000 from individuals.