Forecasters say El Niño data is growing stronger, supporting the prediction that Santa Barbara County could be drenched by one wet winter.
The region could see more than 10 inches of rain by the end of March, according to the National Weather Service.
December saw some light rains, prompting some to wonder whether the El Niño rains would actually materialize. Those doubts were largely washed away last week when back-to-back storms dumped more than 4 inches of rain on the South Coast.
El Niño weather events are caused when warmer ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are pushed by surface winds, moving the water eastward.
The conditions can cause winter storms in Southern California and the Southern United States, and bring higher-than-normal rainfall.
Looking at historical data from past El Niños, it isn’t uncommon for rains to last four to five consecutive days because of back-to-back storms, the weather service said.
This sustained rainfall increases the likelihood of flooding and other storm impacts.
Strong El Niños were seen throughout California in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, both of which affected Southern California in dramatic ways. According to the National Weather Service, 36 deaths in California were blamed on the storms, as well as 481 injuries.
“Additionally, there was $1.2 billion worth of economic losses, including 6,661 homes and 1,330 business that were either damaged or destroyed,” according to the Western Regional Climate Center.
During the 1982-1983 season, Santa Barbara recorded 41.41 inches of rain during that October through September timeframe. The normal amount of rainfall is 18.10 inches.
During the 1997-1998 El Niño, Santa Barbara logged even more rainfall, with 46.79 inches falling.
Each time, rainfall peaked in February.
Noozhawk checked in with the National Weather Service to get the latest data on what county residents can expect in 2016.
Meteorologist Robbie Munroe said data show that El Niño will remain strong through the winter in the northern hemisphere.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows that January through March in Santa Barbara has a 60 percent of above-normal precipitation.
The region usually gets an average of 3.5 inches in January, 3.96 inches in February and 3.18 in March, meaning that the region could receive more than 11 inches by April.
High tides also have been pounding the Santa Barbara County coastline lately, and although ocean tides are related to the gravitational pull of the sun and moon, experts say El Niño also has had some effect.
Because of the warming of coastal waters “the thought is the warmer waters lead to thermal expansion of the ocean,” Munroe said.
Santa Barbara County has seen a 6-inch increase in the height of its tides as a result, he said.
— Noozhawk staff writer Lara Cooper can be reached at lcooper@noozhawk.com. Follow Noozhawk on Twitter: @noozhawk, @NoozhawkNews and @NoozhawkBiz. Connect with Noozhawk on Facebook.
