This could be bad.
The “life-threatening” storm expected to hit Santa Barbara County this weekend has even higher rainfall potential than last year’s Jan. 9 storm that caused widespread flooding and property damage, according to the National Weather Service and county emergency officials.
“NWS is telling us it’s at least that significant if not more,” said Kelly Hubbard, the county’s emergency management director.
The chance of rain starts Saturday afternoon and ramps up intensity, with very heavy rain expected Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, said Rose Schoenfeld, a meteorologist with the NWS Oxnard Office.
There’s a chance of thunderstorms through Monday evening, and showers expected to last through the rest of next week.
The NWS issued a Flood Watch for 1 a.m. Sunday through 4 p.m. Tuesday. due to the high risk of life-threatening and damaging flooding.
There will be high winds during the storm as well, which increases the risk of downed trees and power outages.
Schoenfeld said rainfall totals could reach 3-6 inches in coastal areas and valleys, and 6-12 inches in the mountain and foothill areas. There is increasing confidence in the forecast models, but there is still a range of possibilities for the storm’s impact, she said.
“The message we’ve been giving for Santa Barbara County is, this storm has the potential to rival if not exceed the rainfall rates and totals of the worst storms in people’s memory,” Schoenfeld said.
“We just want people to be prepared for the worst.”
She noted that the Montecito and Carpinteria areas don’t have a burn scar above them anymore, and the deadly 2018 debris flows were “very heavily driven by how hydrophobic and large that Thomas Fire burn scar was.”
So the conditions going into this storm are different, she said.
“A better comparison would be more like last year’s Jan. 9 and Jan. 10 storm.”
However, there will be a lot of rain, and there’s strong potential for rockslides and landslides, and “something like a debris flow is not out of the question,” Schoenfeld said. “Something like 12 inches of rain will be falling in the mountains, potentially.”
There were multiple landslides and rockslides onto Highway 101 and Highway 154 during last January’s storm, as well as flooding on the freeway through Montecito.
“The thing to think about is not just the amount of rain from this storm but the lingering effects of the rain we just had,” meteorologist Ryan Kittell said Friday.
It’s expected to be a “step down” from the Jan. 9, 2023, impacts for northern Santa Barbara County, including Guadalupe, which saw widespread flooding last year.
“But for the city of Santa Barbara and southward, that’s where we’re looking for our January 9th plus, where impacts are even greater than January 9th,” Kittell said.
“Even the lowest projection can still cause a lot of flooding,” he said.
Preparing for the Storm
The NWS says the storm has a risk of “life-threatening” flooding, which means people could die from the impacts, such as drowning while trying to cross flooded roads or standing too close to rushing rivers and creeks. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
The NWS has information about how to prepare for flooding before the storm.
Hubbard said her staff have daily meetings with the Sheriff’s Office, Public Works, Caltrans, the California Highway Patrol and county leadership through the storm to stay aware of conditions and concerns.
The county issued evacuation warnings for this storm around 3 p.m. Friday. The affected areas include:
- Properties along waterways associated with the Thomas, Cave and Alisal burn areas.
- Properties in the vicinity of Sycamore Creek, from Stanwood Dr. down to parts of Ninos Dr., in the city of Santa Barbara.
Click here for a map of the areas.
“The thing about flooding is, it’s really hard to define what would be a specific area that would need to be evacuated,” Hubbard told Noozhawk. “What we generally encourage the public to do is be aware of areas that are prone to flooding in other events.”
(Did your neighborhood or route to work flood during the December storm, or last January’s storm? It might again. Check the FEMA Flood Risk Map for areas that will potentially flood during this storm. Many of the flood risk areas (in blue) did flood during the Jan. 9, 2023 storm.)
People should make the decision to leave an area if they feel unsafe, regardless of whether the county orders evacuations, Hubbard said.
“If at any point they think there’s a life-safety risk, they need to independently make decisions to leave their property or where they’re at if it’s unsafe to stay there. If it’s unsafe to leave on their own, they should go to the upper floors of their home if they can or call 9-1-1 if necessary.”
The areas of concern for flooding are “the usual suspects,” county Public Works spokesman Lael Wageneck said.
In terms of roadways, Refugio Road is often flooded and impassable for residents living in the canyon.
Montecito and Summerland-area roads including Padaro Lane, Bella Vista, Romero Canyon, and North Jameson Road area often underwater during rain storms, he added.
In the eastern Goleta Valley, Atascadero Creek could cause flooding because of the high amount of water expected in the mountains and draining through all the creeks in the eastern Goleta Valley, Wageneck said. It drains into the Goleta Slough.
“The FEMA flood maps are a good indication of what could flood, especially with a storm of this magnitude,” he said.
Bradbury Dam Starts Downstream Releases
The Santa Ynez River reservoirs upstream of Lake Cachuma are both full, and the Bureau of Reclamation started downstream water releases from Bradbury Dam Thursday night, Hubbard said.
Lake Cachuma is only about 4 feet below spill level, at 93.6% capacity.
Last January’s storm boosted the reservoir to capacity and beyond, spilling for the first time since 2011.
The Santa Ynez River has a “small but present risk” of reaching flood stage, said Kittell, the NWS meteorologist. The Ventura River also has a chance of reaching flood stage, the NWS said Friday afternoon.
Santa Barbara County has outreach teams going to unhoused communities, including in riverbeds, to warn them about the storm, Hubbard said. County helicopters may do flyovers for notifications too, she said.
Several School District to Close Monday
Several school district in the county have announced their schools will be closed on Monday due to safety concerns associated with the storm.
Among the districts that will close are Santa Barbara Unified, Goleta Union, Montecito Union, Cold Spring, Lompoc Unified, Santa Maria-Bonita, Santa Maria Joint Union High and Guadalupe. Parents with students in other districts are encouraged to check with their children’s campuses to find out their status.
Here’s more information about local sandbag stations and how to prepare for winter storms.