On Dec. 19 the Lompoc City Council will decide whether to continue to negotiate exclusively with Pale Blue Dot (PBD) Space Base California Project for the use of Ken Adam Park and extend the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which currently expires on Dec. 31.

This process has been going on for more than years.
 
So far, all that’s occurred is a continuous series of extensions as PBD responded to concerns identified by the independent consulting firm, Pro Forma Advisors (PFA), the city hired to evaluate the PBD proposal.

Of concern to taxpayers is whether granting exclusive use of 80 acres at Ken Adam Park would help or hurt Lompoc.

In fairness the city of Lompoc hasn’t spent a nickel to get this far.

PBD says, “It has cost us over $1,200,000 to advance the project to its current stage.”

If the council allows another MOU extension, the PBD costs will likely increase.

First, would the project bring any additional hotel bed or sales tax to the General Fund (GF) if visitors decide to stay all night?

PFA estimates about 600,000 overnight hotel visitors would be staying in 2,759 hotel rooms within 30 minutes of the project. PFA is estimating those staying 30-60 minutes away would include nearly 2 million more staying in 7,117 hotel rooms. 
 
That means PBD estimates there will be 1,643 visitors every day, seven days a week, 52 weeks a year visiting their project. That’s a very optimistic claim.
 
And the PBD proposal assumes guests will stay (and spend their money) at locations up to an hour away from Lompoc; thus very little bed or sales tax revenue will stay in our city.
 
PBD says school kids will make up a large portion of visitors; if the project is completed that’s probably a good assumption.

However, school kids’ families living within the Lompoc Unified School District boundaries and those living outside the district already generate sales and property tax revenue where they live, thus there would be no gain in GF revenue.
 
PBD proposes to offer space-based “mission” experience and gamification. These experiences are abundant on the internet and can be experienced at home. Why would someone travel many miles to “experience” something they can get much cheaper on their smart phone or computer?
 
A layperson, meaning most voters and including me, isn’t equipped to evaluate complex proposals like the PBD Space Base California Project. So, we must rely on public records and an analysis from a third-party consultant who has no vested interest in the project.

The consulting firm’s only purpose is to evaluate the proposal provided by PBD at face value.

In this case, the consultant considers that PBD made “aggressive assumptions” and these lead to this conclusion:

“There is significant risk that the development costs will exceed PBD’s estimates and that the cash flow and net operating income will be less than PBD’s estimates. If more conservative assumptions are applied, it is likely that the project would be unable to achieve the returns required to attract sufficient capital to develop the project.”
 
Keep in mind that even if the City Council gave PBD the green light today, it would be a couple of years before construction could begin and even longer before it was show time. It’s a fair bet the cost of labor and materials will increase during that period.
 
What’s the risk if PBD fails halfway through the project or it completes construction and later abandons it because it can’t pay for itself? Some say this would be of great benefit to Lompoc since they would “inherit” a completed hotel and conference center. 

But is a local government capable of operating such a project and recovering enough revenue to pay for the operation, staff and maintenance costs associated with such a project if the private sector couldn’t?

Typically, local governments keep user fees at about 50 percent of the actual cost of operations, thus taxpayers are on the hook for the rest.
 
While the ideas proposed by PBD look good on paper, the risk is high and the benefits to the city of Lompoc don’t seem to make the conversion of Ken Adam Park worth it at this point.

References:
Lompoc staff report: https://www.cityoflompoc.com/home/showpublisheddocument/39047

PBD response to PFA analysis: https://www.cityoflompoc.com/home/showpublisheddocument/39041
 
Computer based space based “mission” experience and gamification:
https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/menu/play/https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/menu/play/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_flight_simulation_game

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.StefMorojna.SpaceflightSimulator&hl=en&gl=US&pli=1

Ron Fink, a Lompoc resident since 1975, is retired from the aerospace industry. He has been following Lompoc politics since 1992, and after serving for 23 years appointed to various community commissions, retired from public service. The opinions expressed are his own.