The Santa Barbara County Planning Commission voted 3-1 on May 10 to approve allowing up to 16,000 acres of agriculturally zoned land to be converted for solar projects — a figure county staff described as no more than 2% of available agricultural acreage.

Staff also stated that the first 8,000 acres of solar development “should supply” 100% of the county’s power needs, raising questions about why the proposal allows enough acreage to potentially generate double the county’s current electricity demand.

Noozhawk also reported that the Sierra Club Santa Barbara chairwoman said adding new solar farms would help the county move away from oil and gas.

She added that solar panels on farms can “benefit crops, animals and workers by providing shade and protecting them from excessive heat” (wow).

So, let’s make sure that these priorities aligned with all our good citizens of Santa Barbara County because our elected decision makers (Board of Supervisors) hope to see this item on their agenda sometime this summer!

What’s under the hood? The 16,000 acres were calculated to help the county meet its climate goals, including generating sufficient local “renewable” energy to support California’s stated targets.

The first half (8,000 acres of new solar farms) is planned for what’s called the “grid neutral” goal, whereas the total 16,000-acre figure is the true “gas replacement” goal.

“Grid neutral” is based on the needs of everyone in the county’s current electrical load (lighting, computers, existing appliances).

UC Santa Barbara’s “2035 Initiative” would argue that stopping at 8,000 acres of development would effectively lock the county into keeping natural gas for heating and evening power forever … i.e., not acceptable.

This aligns with what our environmental nonprofit organizations, educational institutions, county staff and many local elected officials very much want: the elimination of all-natural gas used for any use in our homes, buildings, restaurants — anywhere and everywhere.

But as we can now see, what’s not being presented well by these piecemeal actions and public meetings is akin to always moving the goal posts.

Natural gas is primarily used for thermal energy (heat), not just electricity generation. Some 8,000 acres of solar panels can keep the lights on, but they cannot heat our county’s homes or power its industries unless that heating equipment is physically replaced with electric alternatives — a process that takes decades and requires far more power than the current grid supplies.

This is called the electrification of energy to fully eliminate all natural gas usage in Santa Barbara County.

The cost of a 16,000-acre buildout is a mind-boggling number.

According to Gemini 3 artificial intelligence models, the breakdown is calculated based on a reasonable partitioning of multiple sizes of solar farms. The approved ag lands are considered nonprime, which is normally grazing land, poorer soil and lacking irrigation.

Neither Santa Barbara County staff nor the agricultural industry has released a “master plan” that pre-assigns a specific number of acres to Tier 3 (community) versus Tier 4 (utility) projects.

Tier 3 project estimates of entire life cycle costs, installation, maintenance, hooking up to the grid, battery storage, maximum years of operation before replacement and disposal costs amount to an estimated upfront investment of between $12.5 million and $14 million.

There still is a 30% federal investment tax credit that remains active if built by 2028, which could drop the cost to $9 million.

Estimates of a revenue stream (selling solar energy to the utilities is estimated by maximizing a power purchasing agreement and selling energy in the higher priced evening requirements.

This can generate an estimated $780,000 a year with a breakeven of 11½ years, knowing that the economic life (inverters and batteries) is 15 years before disposal and replacement.

Tier 4 projects are greater than 30 acres and could be as much as 100-acre solar farms.

There are economies of scale that would reduce the overall costs if there is a blend of solar farms. It’s estimated that if all 16,000 acres were Tier 3, it would be a whopping $7.1 billion investment, while a blending of Tier 4 solar farms at 100-acre parcels possibly price out still at a fixed cost of $3.5 billion!

Bottom line: That’s a lot of money for eliminating natural gas consumption in our county. And who’s the real buyer, i.e. the payer of this bill? It’s the retail consumer … you and me!

But we’re not done. The final leg — once the 16,000-acre solar farms are producing the estimated green energy — requires us mortals to retire our gas furnaces in favor of heating with electric heat pumps, electric dryers, and electric stoves and ovens, including buying pots and pans specifically designed for an all-electrification home (and buildings).

Subject matter experts (again summarized by Gemini AI models) emphasize that solar acres cannot replace gas power plants without massive storage.

A gas plant runs at night; a solar farm does not. To actually retire the gas plants, the solar buildout must be oversized (likely two times the peak demand) to charge the batteries required for the overnight shift.

The 8,000 acres cover the “net” annual usage, but fails the “24/7 reliability” test without the extra acreage for battery charging.

The transition to a fully electrified Santa Barbara County household — utilizing the energy from the 16,000-acre solar buildout — requires an individual consumer capital investment of $18,000 to $28,000 (excluding possible incentives).

Further it would shift monthly expenses from a “pay-for-usage” model to a “high fixed cost plus low usage rate” model.

So while solar farm energy might reduce the cost of generating electricity, it does not pay for the “last-mile” grid upgrades or the appliances needed to use it.

None of this grand plan eliminates the 30% of total energy that California needs because we are a part of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council.

Without this connection we wouldn’t survive with only the energy we develop here. It consists of natural gas, hydro, coal, nuclear, solar (12%) and wind (10%) that balances the peaks and demands of 14 states, Baja Mexico and parts of Canada.

And just to get a perspective of what 16,000 acres looks like, the city of Santa Barbara covers 16,640 acres — 24 square miles.