There’s an old expression, supposedly a Chinese saying: “May you live in interesting times.”

Turns out this is a curse, not a blessing. And we sure are living in “interesting times” right now.

Stock markets have been on a tear, with year-to-date returns of 12% for the S&P 500 and 13% for the NASDAQ as of Aug. 18.

You can see individual stocks up double digits on any given day, and YTD prices more than double for some.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Bill Eigen quipped that when going into a 7-Eleven for coffee and a bagel, he comes out with three micro-cap semiconductor stock tips.

As Mark Twain said, “history may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” and some of this sure reminds me of the go-go dot.com era.

But bond markets are telling a different story, one that’s worth listening to amid the stock market optimism.

I am reminded of an old Wall Street saying: “Stock guys trade what they hope will happen. Bond guys trade out of absolute terror over what might go wrong.”

Eigen noted that bond investors simply want to get their interest payments on time and their money back at maturity.

On CNBC’s Squawk Box, market researcher Ed Yardeni noted that yields on 30-year U.S. Treasuries hit 5.3%, their highest level since 2007, while long-term yields in Japan and Germany were also at multiyear highs.

Reuters and other financial reporting attribute the move to a combination of inflation concerns, government borrowing and fiscal pressures.

Yardeni coined the term “bond vigilantes” back in 1983, saying that if government officials didn’t properly manage or regulate the economy, bond investors would step in to do it themselves through credit markets.

When investors fear high deficits or inflation, they dump bonds, which lowers prices and pushes interest rates higher.

“History may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” MARK TWAIN

Inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target for an extended period. And huge federal deficits year after year have pushed the U.S. debt to almost $40 trillion. That’s about 122% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product.

It seems clear that Washington, D.C., has absolutely no appetite for even trying to balance the budget, but the clock is ticking and the difficult choices are getting harder to postpone.

Social Security trust funds are projected to be deleted in late 2032, at which point incoming revenues would cover only about 78% of scheduled benefits.

Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund is projected to be depleted in 2033, with incoming revenues covering about 89% of scheduled costs and a shortfall that the Congressional Budget Office estimates at $109 trillion over the next 30 years.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., recently noted that out-of-control federal spending and our massive debt will be the No. 1 issue in the 2028 presidential election with Social Security and Medicare trusts running out of money during the victor’s term.

Bond vigilantes may step up pressure to raise rates that compensate them for greater inflation and even default risk.

Higher bond yields might be welcomed by baby boomers who have retired and are living off their investments. But higher interest costs on massive debt will consume a larger portion of the federal budget — not even counting rising Social Security and Medicare costs.

We will face some tough budget choices as the days of politicians simply kicking the can down the road are numbered.

In these interesting times, perhaps the smartest approach is to listen to both markets as stocks tell us what investors hope will happen, and bonds tell us what they fear might go wrong.

Retired financial adviser Kirk Greene served hundreds of individuals, businesses and nonprofit organizations over his 40-year career. In 2020, he sold the Seattle-based registered investment advisory firm he founded to his partners and returned to Santa Barbara, where he grew up. He is an alumnus of Seattle University and earned ChFC and CLU designations from the American College of Financial Services. Kirk is past
president of the Estate Planning Council of Seattle and has been an active Rotarian for more than 25 years. The opinions expressed are his own, and you should consult your own financial, tax and legal advisers in thinking about your own planning.