You may have missed them. You may not have even known they were coming.
King tides. The highest and lowest tides of the year.
They occur infrequently, but predictably, when at the same time the sun and moon are at their closest to the Earth and exert maximum tug on our planet.
In the northern hemisphere this occurs usually once or twice each winter. In 2020, they passed through Nov. 15-16 and Dec. 13-15, with Dec. 14 registering an impressive 7-foot high tide.
More important, king tides are more than just astronomical phenomena. They preview how sea level rise will affect our coastline.
In areas like Santa Barbara County’s South Coast, being able to preview how sea level rise will affect our prized beaches affords us a window into the future caused by global warming. As time goes by, the water level reached now during a king tide will be the water level reached at high tide on an average day.
What does that mean for us in Santa Barbara?
Well, you might be like me. I treasure my time outdoors and particularly my walks along the beach with my poodle, Bella. I particularly enjoy the walk from Hendry’s Beach toward the Santa Barbara Harbor and back.
I can be alone, lose myself in thought, have my senses bathed in the gritty feel of the sand beneath my feet, the sound of the waves breaking and rolling up the beach before retreating back into the ocean. And the always, nostalgic scent of salt air and the expansive view out across the ocean.
Bella loves it, too. She is off leash and can run up and down the sand, play in the water, or just chase other dogs.
In the warmer months, I also find relaxation lying on the beach on blankets and under umbrellas with family and friends. On hot summer days, many of us can find refuge at the beach where the ocean and air are cooler.
Sea level rise will impact and curtail those activities. As a result of sea level rise due to climate change, we will lose a significant portion of our beaches to the ocean. Even today, at high tide, portions of the walk from Hendry’s to the harbor are lost to the rising water levels.
In the future, this will become the new norm while significant stretches of the beach will be a fragment of their current size. This impending loss means my children and grandchildren will not be able to experience and enjoy the beach as I do now. This saddens me. I feel the loss.
Revised estimates of sea level rise and coastal flooding by climate scientists were published in Nature Communications last year. The estimates are quite sobering.
If we continue at our current global rate of carbon emissions, by 2050, up to 340 million people will be living on land below flood levels, and by 2100 that figure rises to 630 million. Think of the relocation and cost that will be required, not just of moving people but of urban infrastructures.
2050 is 30 years from now, and to some it may feel too far into the future to warrant their prompt attention and action. But it will be here before we know it.
If you remember the Exxon Valdez oil spill, the fall of the Berlin Wall, or Iraqi troops invading Kuwait leading to Operation Desert Storm and the Persian Gulf War, you know that those events happened 30 years ago.
Many of us born after 1972, about 120 million of us today, according to current life expectancy tables, will be alive in 2050. We, who will be here in 2050 have the self-interest and the ability to do something about this.
There is too much carbon in the atmosphere for our continued safe existence on Earth. This excess carbon is increasing the heat-trapping gases of the atmosphere that causes Earth’s temperature to rise, glaciers and ice sheets to melt, and thermal expansion of the ocean.
Science tells us that we must decrease our carbon emissions, extract carbon out of the atmosphere and transform our energy needs to renewables.
The choice is still ours.
— Santa Barbara attorney Jeffrey Young serves as a member of the Central Coast Regional Water Quality Control Board and the City of Santa Barbara Water Commission. Click here for previous columns. The opinions expressed are his own.